sentix ASR Essentials 46-2014

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Economic expectations temper Bond optimism

The latest sentix survey suggests that a revival in investors' views on the economic outlook for Germany and the Eurozone is tempering their enthusiasm for Bunds. This week's survey included responses on the macro outlook, which revealed that participants viewed economics as continuing to become less bond-bullish on a six month view (see Chart 3, page 2). This is consistent with signs that the sentiment tide on Eurozone bonds may be turning. Near-term sentiment readings for Bund futures have fallen back to relatively neutral levels, while optimism on a more strategic, medium-term viewpoint is also beginning to weaken (Chart 2). Macro still matters for bond sentiment.

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“Grexit” despite “grecovery”?

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The sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) barely changes in November and now stands at 11.6%. Obviously, Mario Draghi's latest announcements have not really impressed investors as far as the integrity of the common currency is concerned. It is mainly Greece about which investors again worry. But France does not look good either.

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sentix ASR Essentials 45-2014

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Crude pessimism reaches historic extremes

The latest sentix survey underlines the extent to which the recent reversal in Crude Oil (now down 35% in the past six months) has undermined sentiment. The nearterm sentiment revival that emerged in mid-October has been reversed in the space of a week, with readings falling to historic lows. At the same time, investors have become less optimistic on the medium-term, more strategic outlook for Crude. While extended near-term pessimism chimes with indicators that suggest Crude is oversold near-term, recent moves appear to have undermined survey participants' more fundamental views on Oil.

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Investors want dividends, dividends, dividends

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Investors' preferences for dividends are as strong as never before. At the same time stocks are currently barely bought for the motive of price increases. This is what the results of the latest sentix Global Investors Survey show.

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sentix ASR Essentials 44-2014

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Due to travelling we cannot provide an English report this week. Please excuse the inconvenience. If you want to check the latest highlights, the German report might give you an impression about where to look.

Click here for the analysis in German (sentix registration required)

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