Ein unverkrampfter Blick nach Griechenland

Written by Manfred Hübner | 05 February 2015
Posted in Woolly thoughts (blog)

There are no translations available.

Schuldenschnitt ja oder nein? Euro-Austritt ja oder nein? Europa im Wandel oder in der Katharsis? Die neu gewählte griechische Regierung hat zwar noch nichts geleistet. Dennoch wirbelt sie Europa gehörig auf. Und das ist gut so! Denn die bisherige Rettungspolitik hat keine nachhaltige Lösung gebracht. Die Eurozone steht vor einer wegweisenden Entscheidung.

sentix ASR Essentials 05-2015

Written by Manfred Hübner | 01 February 2015
Posted in sentix Weekly

A change of tack on Eurozone versus US Equities?

The latest sentix survey points to an interesting divergence of opinion on Eurozone and US Equity markets. In the case of the DAX Index, investors have become a little less optimistic on the near-term outlook, but remain highly positive from a mediumterm strategic bias perspective. They are also continuing to warm to the mediumterm prospects for the Euro versus the US Dollar. However, in the case of the US market, the past couple of weeks have seen medium-term survey readings on the S&P 500 modestly reverse (see Charts 2 and 3, page 2). It appears that investors are beginning to view Eurozone equities in a more favourable light than their largecap US peers.

Click here for the full report

Die Vergreisung

Written by Manfred Hübner | 27 January 2015
Posted in Woolly thoughts (blog)

There are no translations available.

Die Demographie ist ein gewichter Faktor für die Wirtschaft. Wie viele Menschen leben und wie alt diese sind bestimmt in hohem Maße die konjunkturelle Dynamik. Dieser Umstand ist weithin bekannt. Weniger bekannt dürfte sein, dass auch Bankbilanzen vergreisen können. Und die EZB trägt mit ihrer Geldpolitik erheblich dazu bei. Auch diese "demographische Änderung" kann erhebliche Folgen haben - für die Wirtschaft, aber vor allem für die Bankkunden!

Investors are nervous, but not really worried

Written by Sebastian Wanke | 26 January 2015
Posted in sentix Euro Break-up Index News

In January, the sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) increases by 4.4 percentage points to now 24.3%, its highest reading since April 2013. It is still the situation in Greece which drives the indicator. But interestingly, investors barely see a risk of contagion anymore – an environment which makes government bonds of the periphery vulnerable.

sentix ASR Essentials 04-2015

Written by Patrick Hussy | 25 January 2015
Posted in sentix Weekly

Near-term optimism on DAX and ESTOXX hits the heights

Last week’s ECB announcement appears to have bolstered already high optimism towards European equity indices such as the DAX and EuroSTOXX. The latest sentix survey indicates that near-term sentiment towards both indices is now not far from historic highs (see Chart 2, page 2), while readings based on participants’ mediumterm strategic bias are also heading ever-higher. Indeed, monthly questions covering investors’ positioning also indicate there has been a sharp increase in overinvestment in equities versus the longer-term average level. In short, optimism on eurozone equities has reached the high-end of the historic range, with Sentix Neutrality indicators suggesting there is also little uncertainty among survey respondents on the near and medium-term outlook.