Economic weakness does not undermine confidence in euro integrity

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The sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) decreases in September from 8.2% to 7.7%. It again stands very close to its all-time low registered in July although economic assessments of investors have deteriorated markedly since then. Consequently, investors do currently not expect economic weakness to harm the euro. But the national EBIs of Greece and Italy disappoint nevertheless.

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sentix ASR Essentials 36-2014

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High uncertainty on Equities even as sentiment revives

While sentix survey respondents remain highly pessimistic on the Euro, there are signs that optimism is returning in terms of the medium-term outlook for Eurozone bonds and equities (see Charts 6 & 9, pages 3 & 4). In the case of equities, the revival in medium-term sentiment readings on the likes of the DAX and EuroSTOXX indices has occurred despite heightened pessimism over the near-term outlook. It may be that investors have begun to see value in equities after their summer setbacks. However, the improved tone of sentiment has also been set against a reduced level of over-investment in equities, based on the monthly survey questions on investor positioning. Equity sentiment on the medium-term is improving, but uncertainties have not gone away, as indicated by positioning and elevated 'neutrality' levels (see Chart 7, page 3).

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Draghi electrifies bank shareholders

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In September, a very strong increase can be observed for the sentix Sector Sentiment for European bank stocks. This comes after a negative extreme in the previous months. Investors are now celebrating the new ABS-buying programme of the European Central Bank (ECB). But as the enthusiasm has by far not reached all market participants yet, bank stocks should continue to benefit from this turn in investors' perception over the weeks to come.

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sentix ASR Essentials 35-2014

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High-optimism on Healthcare constrasts with caution Cyclicals

The latest sentix survey suggests that investors' views on sectors remain caught in the grip of uncertainty about the macro outlook. Questions on participants' opinions about the medium-term outlook for European sectors relative to the market revealed that they remain deeply pessimistic on sectors such as Basic Resources, Autos and Industrials. On the other side of the sentiment divide, investors remain especially optimistic on the medium-term outlook for Healthcare (see Charts 2 & 3, page 2). Sector sentiment appears to remain set on a more Defensive sector tack relative to Cyclicals.

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Update on the sentix survey timetable

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Starting October 2014, sentix revises its survey timetable. Until now, the sentix Sector Sentiment was surveyed on the 3rd Friday of a month. For database customers using the data in portfolio strategies, this timing is inconvenient. Because especially market neutral strategies will be implemented with future trades, it does mean that the survey date is also the last trading day of the front month in the future contracts. We therefore switch the survey data for the sector sentiment to the 2nd Friday in a month. The sentix Styles will be survey on the 3rd Friday instead.

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