Reduced risk of contagion

Written by Manfred Hübner | 29 May 2017
Posted in sentix Euro Break-up Index News

Following the French presidential elections, investors' perception of the euro crisis has once again relaxed considerably. The overall Euroland index fell to 11.4%, the lowest since autumn 2015. While the Greek sub-index remains virtually unchanged, the probability of exit from France and Italy drops significantly. As a result, the risk of contagion is reduced to around 34%.

sentix ASR Essentials 21-2017

Written by Patrick Hussy | 28 May 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

A less negative strategic bias on Crude

Last week we noted the continued interplay in sentiment towards emerging equity markets and commodities. At a market level, weakening investor opinion on the medium-term outlook for Chinese equities remains a feature, consistent with receding optimism on commodities as an asset class. However, on this latter front, there are some chinks of light amidst the prevailing recent gloom, with investors’ medium-term strategic bias on Crude Oil having become less negative in recent weeks. Notably, it is an improvement that has not been derailed by initial market disappointment at the outcome of last week’s OPEC meeting. See Charts 2-4, p2.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 20-2017

Written by Manfred Hübner | 22 May 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

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War es das schon?

Heute vor einer Woche sah es mal wieder so aus, als würden die Aktienmärkte ihre verdiente und überfällige Konsolidierung durchlaufen. Doch nur eine Woche später, ist davon nur noch wenig zu spüren. Stattdessen beginnt sich der Strategische Bias zu stabilisieren und erweckt so den Eindruck, als läge das Schlimmste bereits hinter uns. Geht die Hausse demnach munter weiter?

Geänderte Einschätzungen: USD-JPY

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Bitcoins: Institutionals get doubts

Written by Manfred Hübner | 22 May 2017
Posted in Special research

Since 2013, sentix has regularly measured the expectations of investors towards bitcoins. sentix is thus the only supplier of investor expectations worldwide to this new speculative instrument. The data show that since 2014, the interest of the market in bitcoins has increased systematically. But on the current edge there is a change in expectations, which could lead to a price correction in the "crypto currency".

sentix ASR Essentials 20-2017

Written by Manfred Hübner | 21 May 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

Commodities and Euro in the sentiment spotlight

The latest sentix survey throws up a couple of notable developments. A month ago we noted that there was a risk that continued caution on commodities would prove a drag on emerging market (EM) equity sentiment. In the event, investor sentiment towards EM has begun to follow survey readings on commodities lower in the latest survey, though it is also notable that investors are becoming less negative on Crude oil from a medium-term strategic perspective. Any signs of a wider firming in sentiment towards commodities would likely lend support to EM equity sentiment. In FX, optimism on EUR/USD has reached its highest level for over a year, with readings based on the near-term outlook for the euro versus the US dollar now running at the high-end of their historic range. A lot of positive near-term sentiment is baked into EUR/USD at current levels. See Charts 2-4, p2.