sentix Investmentmeinung 03-2017

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Die Öl-Risiken nehmen weiter zu

Während die Anleger weiter gespannt nach Amerika schauen und sich über den neuen US-Präsidenten ihre Gedanken machen, tut sich im Rohstoffbereich so einiges. Zum einen messen wir im Assetklassen-Sentiment den höchsten Wert seit September 2012. Zum anderen verbessert sich der Strategische Bias zu Gold. Für Rohöl dagegen treten starke Risiken zu Tage, die sich vor allem aus der Positionierung der Anleger ergeben.

Geänderte Einschätzung: Keine

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sentix ASR Essentials 03-2017

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Deeply downbeat on Bunds in a relative context

The latest sentix survey shows that investors’ medium-term strategic bias on Bunds remains deeply negative both in absolute terms and versus US Treasuries. In the case of Bunds versus US bonds, the negative bias has run some way ahead of recent relative moves in US-German 10Y yields, suggesting that investors may be looking for a further narrowing of the spread in the medium-term. At an asset level, participants’ negative strategic bias on bunds versus eurozone equities also remains firmly intact, while monthly questions on assets indicate that the tide of optimism on commodities continues to rise. Bunds remain unloved relative to other assets (Charts 2-4, p2).

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“Trumped”

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The sentix Sector Sentiment for European pharmaceutical stocks has hit the lowest level since 12 years ago. Within only a few weeks, investors’ perception has turned upside down. The latest remarks by president-elect Trump on drug pricing in the US has stirred up investors’ confidence. A short-term buying opportunity could arise.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 02-2017

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Bewegung im Währungs- und Rohstoffbereich

Die größten Bewegungen im sentix-Datenkranz liefern zur Zeit Währungen und Rohstoffe. Bei EUR-USD und Öl gehen diese in die Richtung, unsere bestehende Positionierung zu stützen. USD-JPY erreicht ebenfalls einen interessanten Sentiment-Punkt, der eine neue Einschätzung bedingt. Bei Gold dagegen ist die Lage unentschieden.

Geänderte Einschätzung: USD-JPY

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sentix ASR Essentials 02-2017

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Investor opinion poles apart on EZ Equities/Bonds and Banks/Healthcare

The latest sentix surveys points to polarised investor opinion on a couple of fronts. At an asset level, respondents are deeply downbeat on the medium-term outlook for Eurozone bonds versus equities. Monthly survey questions on investors’ opinions on the medium-term outlook for sectors relative to the European market also reveal that the recent marked improvement in sentiment towards Banks remains intact. On the other side of the sentiment divide, pessimism on unloved sectors such as Food & Beverage, Utilities and Real Estate has also begun to moderate. However, pessimism still dominates on Healthcare, with monthly survey readings on the sector versus the market dropping to historic lows. Investor opinion is poles apart on equities versus Bonds and Banks versus Healthcare. See page 2 for charts.

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