Coup in Euroland!

Written by Sebastian Wanke | 08 December 2014
Posted in sentix Economic News

For the euro-area economy investors' 6-month expectations rise in December as strongly as only twice before in the history of the sentix Economic Index. Only in August 2005, ahead of German elections, and in February 2012, when the ECB was about to launch its second LTRO, more pronounced increases could be observed. Also, the assessment of the current situation improves which makes the composite index go up by 9.4 to now -2.5 points. With that, the sentix Economy Clock now points to an upswing for the euro zone!
For the remaining regions and countries the composite indices rise, too. The only exception is Japan. That the euro zone stands out so clearly this month should be due to the expectation that the ECB will start a large-scale as-set-buying programme soon. In addition, the weak euro and the fallen price of oil are obviously perceived as economic boosters. And the low oil price does have positive effects not only in the euro zone!

sentix ASR Essentials 46-2014

Written by Manfred Hübner | 07 December 2014
Posted in sentix Weekly

Economic expectations temper Bond optimism

The latest sentix survey suggests that a revival in investors' views on the economic outlook for Germany and the Eurozone is tempering their enthusiasm for Bunds. This week's survey included responses on the macro outlook, which revealed that participants viewed economics as continuing to become less bond-bullish on a six month view (see Chart 3, page 2). This is consistent with signs that the sentiment tide on Eurozone bonds may be turning. Near-term sentiment readings for Bund futures have fallen back to relatively neutral levels, while optimism on a more strategic, medium-term viewpoint is also beginning to weaken (Chart 2). Macro still matters for bond sentiment.

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“Grexit” despite “grecovery”?

Written by Sebastian Wanke | 01 December 2014
Posted in sentix Euro Break-up Index News

The sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) barely changes in November and now stands at 11.6%. Obviously, Mario Draghi's latest announcements have not really impressed investors as far as the integrity of the common currency is concerned. It is mainly Greece about which investors again worry. But France does not look good either.

sentix ASR Essentials 45-2014

Written by Patrick Hussy | 30 November 2014
Posted in sentix Weekly

Crude pessimism reaches historic extremes

The latest sentix survey underlines the extent to which the recent reversal in Crude Oil (now down 35% in the past six months) has undermined sentiment. The nearterm sentiment revival that emerged in mid-October has been reversed in the space of a week, with readings falling to historic lows. At the same time, investors have become less optimistic on the medium-term, more strategic outlook for Crude. While extended near-term pessimism chimes with indicators that suggest Crude is oversold near-term, recent moves appear to have undermined survey participants' more fundamental views on Oil.

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Investors want dividends, dividends, dividends

Written by Sebastian Wanke | 24 November 2014
Posted in Special research

Investors' preferences for dividends are as strong as never before. At the same time stocks are currently barely bought for the motive of price increases. This is what the results of the latest sentix Global Investors Survey show.