Behavioral Finance als Grundlage der Technischen Analyse

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Für die meisten Marktteilnehmer ist die Technische Analyse eher eine Kunst als eine Wissenschaft. Das hängt mit vielen Faktoren zusammen, insbesondere mit den meist visuellen Konzepten, die häufig Grundlage der Technischen Analyse sind. Von Anfang an war die Analysedisziplin der Versuch von Praktikern, die Natur der Finanzmärkte in den Griff zu bekommen.

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sentix Survey results (20-2021)

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Not really a new situation

Sentiment for US equities remains moderately bearish, acknowledging the recent weakness in the US equity market. Volatilities have risen, the P/C ratio has touched the last reversal levels. The strategic bias does not yet show any bargain hunters. This speaks for a continuing corrective movement. The European stock market is benefiting from "less technology". Nevertheless, the bond market could become a killjoy here as well.

Further results:

  • Bonds: New 52-week low in bias
  • Bitcoins: Negative sentiment impulse
  • sentix Sector Sentiment

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Overstimulation?

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The global economy is beginning to show signs of overheating. The situation assessments in all regions continue to improve. With the exception of Latin America and Eastern Europe, we measure positive values everywhere. The Corona-related recession phase has ended. At the same time, expectations remain high. Investors therefore expect a continuation of the current upswing, which is increasingly perceived as a boom. This has a noticeable ef-fect on the situation on the bond markets. Investors expect reactions from the central banks.

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sentix Survey results (19-2021)

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Paradox sentiment situation

The S&P 500 is rushing from one all-time high to the next. Surprisingly, this process is relatively "unemotional". Sentiment for equities in the USA is just about neutral. At the same time, fewer and fewer investors are following the upward trend at the strategic level. Medium-term reservations are growing and in the end are also reflected in sentiment. The situation is different in the precious metals sector. There, investors are rejoicing over the successful liberation blow.

Further results:

  • Bonds: Strong bias discount
  • Gold: Sustainably good starting position
  • sentix economic index: Monday, 10th May 2021 at 10:30h CEST

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Risk appetite and willingness to sell

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Every week we ask our investors about their portfolio positioning. We are interested in whether investors have a higher or lower than usual exposure in their portfolios. We aggregate the data in the sentix portfolio risk level indicators.

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