Insurances get into the interest focus

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In the last three weeks, yields on long-term bonds in particular have come under massive pressure. Since 16 July 2019, the current interest rate for government bonds with a residual term of 30 years has fallen from +0.33% to cur-rently -0.14%. This development is also having an impact on shares in the insurance industry. However, investors have not yet focused on this.

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sentix Survey results (32-2019)

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Surprisingly high confidence in bonds

The global bond markets are showing extraordinary dynamism. Since 12 July, interest rates for 10-year Bunds have fallen by 35bp. This development is driven by an extraordinarily high basic conviction among investors, which is based, among other things, on the deep conviction that further ECB interest rate cuts are to be expected. There were similar developments in 2014 and 2016, but this "perception of value" is surprising in view of negative interest rates up to a term of 30 years. How deep will the coming recession be?

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Waiting for death

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In the German language, the word "Rente" not only stands for the pension benefits of pensioners, but is also another term for fixed-income securities (bonds). These were or are securities that offer the owner an annual, usually fixed rate of interest - like a pension. This is no longer the case at present. The deep slide of certain segments of the bond market into negative interest rates, for example german federal bonds, has massive consequences, which will be pointed out and discussed here.

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Mixture of rubber band, medicinal herbs & paralysis reminds of 2011

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Mixture of rubber band, medicinal herbs & paralysis reminds of 2011

Do you remember summer 2011? Back then, economic indicators and the stock market went their separate ways for many months. Within a few trading days, the whole thing turned into a summer crash. In 2019, too, such a gap opened up - more than ever.

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Downturn gains speed

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The pressure on the economic front is increasing noticeably. The current assessment and expectations are falling to their knees, and 6-month expectations for the Euro area are falling by 7 points to -20 points. This is the lowest value since August 2012!

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