sentix Survey results (31-2021)

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China in focus

The focus is on the Chinese stock market, whose technology stocks have come under massive pressure. The weakness of the market had been announced in recent weeks via a poor strategic bias. But the situation still seems too early for a contrarian buy. Our risk radar does not give the all-clear. Rather, the question is how long the remaining risk assets can ignore this imbalance.

Further results:

  • Global Equities: Scepticism goes, overconfidence remains
  • Risk radar: Tense situation with bonds
  • FX: Rising carelessness in EUR/CHF

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sentix Survey results (30-2021)

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Moderate improvement in sentiment

In recent weeks, strategic confidence in oil has plummeted. This usually leads to position reductions. However, positioning is by no means very bullish at the moment, so there is less risk to the oil price than would otherwise be the case. In equities, sentiment is neutralising and the neutral position is filling up again. A volatile summer phase is thus not yet off the table.

Further results:

  • Gold: Bias remains stable
  • Crude oil: Weak bias but positive seasonal pattern
  • sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

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sentix Survey results (29-2021)

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Unusually stable sentiment

We continue to measure unusual sentiment developments on the stock market. Although the technical condition of the stock markets has deteriorated over the course of the week, impressively demonstrated for example by the decline of stocks above the 250-day line in the Russell 2000 Index and the resulting negative divergence in the indicator, there has been virtually no change in sentiment and bias. In our opinion, this is not a positive sign.

Further results:

  • Bonds: Private investors develop strategic confidence
  • Crude oil: Strategic bias falls again
  • sentix styles - Investor preferences & behavior

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sentix Survey results (28-2021)

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TD buy signals

The moderate correction over the course of the week has an astonishingly large impact on sentiment in equities. With underlying confidence stable at the same time, buy signals are emerging in the TD Index. Statistically, these are very interesting, but two reasons are likely to limit the bulls' dreams: on the one hand, the approaching end of seasonal support and, on the other, the further clouding of the strategic situation in China.

Further results:

  • Precious metals: Positive bias development
  • Crude oil: Strategic bias tips off
  • sentix Sector Sentiment

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Can it get any better?

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The global economy is running at full speed. Even the crisis region of Latin America is back in positive territory for the first time since May 2018. Even if the recession has not yet been fully overcome there, things are booming everywhere. The global situation index rose for the 15th time in a row to 29.4 points. Can it get any better? In the short term, there are increasing signs of overstimulation. Expectations are starting to fall. This could contribute to higher stock market volatility over the summer.

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