Mild temperatures give hope

Written by Manfred Hübner | 07 November 2022
Posted in sentix Economic News

At the beginning of November, the sentix economic indices in Euroland surprise on the positive side. The overall index rises by 7.4 points to -30.9, which is still not a trend reversal signal. But the rise in situation and expectation values shows how sensitively investors react in their economic expectations to signals from the energy market. For this is the cause of the hopeful changes. October showed higher temperatures than usual and this means that gas storage facilities in Germany, for example, are full to the brim, more than expected for November. Spot mar-ket gas prices collapsed in response. Concerns about a catastrophic gas shortage are fading.

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sentix Survey results (44-2022)

Written by Patrick Hussy | 06 November 2022
Posted in sentix Weekly

Mixed picture - especially internationally

Europe's stock markets have recently been able to make up ground, while the U.S. stock markets look battered. In both cases, lethargy remains a conspicuous element in the equity bias. Currency developments are likely to be to blame for the difference in market reaction. The U.S. dollar is losing favor with investors, especially against the Japanese yen. For the first time since Jan 2021, the bias has fallen below the zero line. There is movement at the currency level.

Further results

• Bonds: All-time low in overconfidence
• FX: Movement comes in
• sentix economix index: Monday, 07th Nov. 2022 at 10:30h CET

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sentix Survey results (43-2022)

Written by Patrick Hussy | 30 October 2022
Posted in sentix Weekly

China exasperation

Sentiment on the stock market continues to recover, as it does for bonds. After a long time, fixed-interest securities are being given greater consideration in portfolios. At the same time, the equity bias remains weak, and fundamental confidence is languishing. Surprisingly, equity quotas are being built up despite these reservations. The China complex is conspicuous: there is a clear disenchantment with China equities. Precious metals stand out positively. The currency side could help.

Further results

• Bonds: A drumbeat on the bond market
• Precious metals: Better times ahead
• sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

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sentix Survey results (42-2022)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 23 October 2022
Posted in sentix Weekly

Seasonal factors support

A month ago we took a look at the seasonality of the US equity market after the September futures drop. So far, the US market has followed this pattern. A very friendly phase should lie ahead according to this analogy. The US election cycle is heading in the same direction. From the sentix data, the outlook is not so bullish. Things look better for the bond markets.

Further results

• Bonds: Marked buy signals
• FX: US dollar strength should come to an end
• sentix styles - Investor preferences & behavior

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sentix Survey results (41-2022)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 16 October 2022
Posted in sentix Weekly

Sentiment rises, bias remains weak

After very poor investor sentiment and defensive portfolios at the end of September, equity markets have started to stabilise. Sentiment and portfolios are neutralising without prices rising significantly. Basic strategic confidence also remains weak. Therefore, no all-clear can be given for equities. There are interesting signals in USD-JPY and bonds.

Further results

• Bonds: Basic confidence continues to rise
• USD-JPY: USD risks increase strongly
• sentix sector sentiment

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