sentix Survey results (36-2022)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 11 September 2022
Posted in sentix Weekly

Basic confidence in equities remains the core problem

The very high level of fear that we measured on equities in the previous week gave way somewhat in the course of the week. Nevertheless, equities should still benefit somewhat from the poor sentiment. However, we continue to doubt that we are at a classic contrarian buying point. Fundamental confidence simply remains too weak. Moreover, in our view, the action patterns do not reflect the seriousness of the situation. The parallels to 2001 and 2008 still exist.

Further results

• Crude oil: Risks increase
• Silver: OCI and bias with positive signals
• sentix sector sentiment

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sentix Survey results (35-2022)

Written by Patrick Hussy | 04 September 2022
Posted in sentix Weekly

ANGST

This is what ANGST looks like! The mood at the stock markets reaches in rows new historical extreme values! Fear shoots the investors in the limbs, it could go with the energy supply violently something wrong. At the same time, the price of crude oil is wobbling and fears of recession are becoming real. If things turn out as they did in the crisis years of 2008 and 2001, the fall will bring a sharp drop in crude oil prices. This would then give the central banks arguments and room for maneuver.

Fruther results

• Crude oil: Price collapse as in 2001/2008?
• FX: High overconfidence among US dollar bulls
• sentix economic index: 05th September 2022 at 10:30 CEST

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A very deep recession?!

Written by Manfred Hübner | 04 September 2022
Posted in sentix Economic News

The general conditions for the global economy continued to deteriorate at the beginning of September. While in Europe the signs have been pointing to a considerable recession for some time, there are now increasing signs of a corresponding development at the global level. The sentix business cycle indices for all regions and countries under consideration are deteriorating. The third decline in the values for China is of particular importance. But the recessionary environment is also deepening in the Eurozone.

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sentix Survey results (34-2022)

Written by Patrick Hussy | 28 August 2022
Posted in sentix Weekly

Private investors react hesitantly

There is no end to the bad news. Sentiment collapses, investors smooth out their positions. The professionals have already prepared for a stronger setback. Private investors are reacting hesitantly. But how should positioning behavior be assessed? A comparison with 2008 shows that there is still enough room for maneuver on the downside.

Fruther results

• FX: Bias in the Swiss Franc reaches record level
• Precious metals: Constructive
• sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

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sentix Survey results (33-2022)

Written by Patrick Hussy | 21 August 2022
Posted in sentix Weekly

2008 as a template

One of the weakest developments in the sentix data set is the bias for Chinese equities. This falls significantly compared to the rest of the equity markets and has given up 22 percentage points in the last four weeks alone. This indicates an increasing willingness to sell. Investors are also sensing trouble with Bitcoins. All in all, many things follow a certain pattern, especially if you compare today with 2008.

Fruther results

• Bitcoins: Risk off mode
• Volatility: Calm before the storm
• sentix styles - Investor preferences & behavior

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