Mehr als eine gewöhnliche Übernahme

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Die Bayer AG hat eine Übernahmeofferte für Monsanto abgegeben. Würde der Deal, der gemäß dem Angebotspreis auf 55 Mrd. Euro taxiert wird, zustande kommen, Würde es sich um die größte Übernahme der Geschichte durch einen deutschen Konzern handeln.Für die Aktionäre beider Gesellschaften ist dieses Event natürlich eine spannende Angelegenheit, aber auch für alle anderen Kapitalanleger hat diese Nachricht Signalwirkung. Warum?

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sentix Investmentmeinung 20-2016

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Positive Aktiensignale im Mai

Überraschend positive Signale haben wir am Wochenende aus dem sentix Global Investor Survey erhalten. Von dem vielzitierten „sell in May“, also der oft im Mai zu beobachtenden Gewinnmitnahmetendenz zum Ende der Dividendensaison, ist in diesem Jahr wenig zu verspüren. Stattdessen zeichnen sich vor allem die institutionellen Anleger durch einen starken Anstieg im Grundvertrauen um 13% aus!

Geänderte Einschätzung: DAX, EuroSTOXX 50

Klicken Sie hier für die aktuelle Investmentmeinung (sentix Registrierung erforderlich)

Buy in May and stay?!

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The latest sentix Global Investor Survey reveals an exceptionally positive signal for the German equity market. The prospects for a new bull market are increasing as especially the medium-term market expectation of institutional investors is on the rise.


The sentix Strategic Bias rises to a new 13 weeks high as it expresses regained medium-term conviction of German equities. Especially institutional investors’ confidence gets a boost. The sub-index rises 13 points in comparison to previous weeks’ survey. It is in principle a bullish market indication. However, it contradicts the conventional market wisdom “sell in May”.

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“Sell in May” describes the tendency of some investors to avoid period from May to October. In contrast, the increase of the sentix Strategic Bias points out that investors mentally prepare to buy instead to sell (refer to Background for a detailed explanation). Rising confidence, especially among institutional investors, is “apparently” neither caused by price indication nor by the news. Therefore, the latest signal should be taken seriously as emotions obviously were not the cause. Based on our statistical analysis, investors can theoretically expect an increase of around 2.3% over the next 16 weeks, on average, each time investors’ confidence has reached a comparable level.


Background

The sentix Strategic Bias (investors' six-month market confidence) is conducted on a weekly basis since 2001 as part of the sentix Global Investor Survey. It reflects the strategic view of market participants as well as their fundamental convictions and perceptions of value for a given market. As this indicator represents investors' general willingness to buy or sell it should not be interpreted as a contrarian signal. Rather it is usually leading the market by several weeks.
In the latest sentix Global Investor Survey was conducted from 19-May-2016 to 21-May-2016. 1032 individual and institutional investors took part in it.

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sentix ASR Essentials 20-2016

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Strengthening strategic bias for equities over bonds

The latest sentix survey suggest investors continue to warm to developed equity markets from a medium-term perspective, but are becoming markedly cooler on bonds (see p3-4). This has seen the gap between strategic bias readings for the EuroSTOXX and Bunds pull further away from its January lows (see Chart 2, p2), implying survey participants favour equities over bonds in the medium-term. However, sentiment towards emerging equity markets as an asset class has weakened in the past month, at the same time as commodity optimism has moderated. It appears that sentiment on both asset classes remains inextricably linked (Charts 3-4, p2).

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Investors insure against insurance stocks

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Negative stock price developments of European insurance companies cause frustration among the investment community. The sentix Sector Sentiment for European insurance stocks falls to a 12-month low in May. A potential buy opportunity could emerge.

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