sentix ASR Essentials 30-2016

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High near-term neutrality chimes with low equity volatility

Despite a positive week for eurozone equity market performance, the latest Sentix survey suggests sentiment on the near-term prospects for markets has modestly deteriorated, even though survey readings based on investors’ strategic bias on markets have broadly held onto recent advances. This may reflect the heightened level of neutrality (or uncertainty) on the near-term outlook for markets that is also evident in the survey. High neutrality chimes with current low levels of implied equity volatility as measured by the likes of the VSTOXX (Chart 2, p2). With both measures looking stretched, there is a risk that volatility picks up in the near-term.

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Contagion risk for other countries increases

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After the Brexit shock and the obvious increase end of June the sentix EBI (Euro Break-up Index) calms down by the end of the month July 2016. The decline of 6.8 points to 20.3 points should not hide the fact that the value is still higher than before the Brexit referendum. The obvious calm in the capital markets does not seem to mean, the risk for a break-up of the euro zone has sustainably given away. In the background the risk of contagion rather increases. Several countries like Finland or Italy reach new annual highs in the country-EBI-indices.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 29-2016

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EUR/USD vor Belastungsprobe

Eine der auffälligsten Daten aus dem aktuellen sentix Global Investor Survey ist der Strategische Bias für EUR/USD. Dieser erreicht mit -33 Prozentpunkten ein neues Jahrestief (siehe Kommentierung der aktuellen Ergebnisse 29/2016). Beeindruckend ist zudem auch die Abwärts-Dynamik, die der Indikator erfährt. Seit seinem Jahreshoch Anfang Februar 2016 hat er Bias um 36 Prozentpunkte abgegeben. Woher rührt die erneute Abkehr der Anleger von der Euro-Gemeinschaftswährung?

Geänderte Einschätzungen: EUR/USD

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sentix ASR Essentials 29-2016

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Dollar’s grip on Gold may be loosening

Sentix survey participants are becoming more upbeat on equities from a medium- term strategic perspective, with readings on Eurozone markets retracing recent setbacks and the upturn in opinion on the US and Asian markets continuing apace. An increasingly positive strategic bias towards Chinese equities and emerging markets more generally is consistent with the improved tone of sentiment towards commodities. In the case of Gold, investors’ positive view on the metal from a medium-term strategic perspective has moderated in recent months, but survey readings are still elevated in the context of recent years. This is despite investors’ increasingly US dollar-bullish strategic bias on EUR/USD and USD/JPY. It may be that the dollar’s grip on Gold sentiment is loosening. See charts 3-4, p2).

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sentix Investmentmeinung 28-2016

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Sentimentimpulse, nur nicht in Euroland

Die Anleger sind wählerisch, wenn es um die regionale Auswahl von Aktien geht. „USA und Asien hui, Euroland pfui“, so könnte man meinen! Neue Allzeithochs in den US-Aktienindizes stimulieren die Anleger genauso wie die Überzeugung, dass es in Japan und in China besser wird. Der Strategische Bias für diese bevorzugten Anlageregionen erreicht ein neues 52-Wochenhoch und lässt die Ängste um die Brexit-Wirren in Vergessenheit geraten. Die heimischen Märkte hinken hinterher...

Geänderte Einschätzungen: keine

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