sentix ASR Essentials 39-2016

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Optimism burning brightly on Oil post-OPEC

Last week provided a couple of notable sentiment twists. On the equity front, nearterm sentiment on eurozone equities was undermined by heightened concerns over Deutsche Bank, though those investors polled continue to hold with their positive view on the outlook for global equities from a medium-term strategic perspective. In commodities, in last week’s review we noted the heightened near-term uncertainty on Crude ahead of the OPEC meeting. In the event, the unexpected OPEC agreement on an output cut resulted in a sharp increase in optimism on the nearterm outlook for Crude Oil, though sentiment readings are still below historic highs. More notably, investors have also become markedly more positive on oil from a medium-term strategic perspective. See charts 2-4, page 2.

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Mediterranean tensions

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The fragile condition of the Eurozone has not improved in comparison to previous months. The September results draw a gloomy picture. The sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) for the Eurozone rises to 16.3 points, while in the meantime contagion risks have slightly fallen. Especially the situation of the Portuguese and Greek economy continues to cause worries with investors.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 38-2016

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Strategisches Unbehagen am Rentenmarkt

Die Grundüberzeugung der Anleger am Rentenmarkt ist seit Jahren gestört. Die intensiven „Bewirtschaf-tungsmaßnahmen“ der Notenbanken haben das Grundvertrauen der Anleger systematisch untergraben. Ablesbar ist dies am konstant negativen Votum im sentix Strategischen Bias zu Bundesanleihen. Innerhalb dieser gestörten Vertrauensbeziehung kippt aktuell aber dieser Bias nochmals deutlicher ab. Auch wenn die EZB sich einen guten Teil der Investmentnachfrage in Euro-Staatsanleihen selbst schafft, könnte diese Entwicklung die Kurse am Rentenmarkt dennoch belasten.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: Bunds, Rohöl

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sentix ASR Essentials 38-2016

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Investors upbeat on Equities; but uncertain on Oil

The latest sentix survey revealed a sharp pick-up in near-term optimism on equities, alongside a continued positive view on the outlook for global equities from a medium-term strategic perspective. In the case of the eurozone, this comes at a time when survey readings based on participants’ medium-term strategic bias on Bunds are becoming more negative. In short, those investors polled favour eurozone equities in absolute terms and versus bonds in the medium-term. In commodities, while sentiment on Oil is relatively neutral, the survey points to heightened near-term uncertainty on Crude ahead of this week’s OPEC meeting. This suggests increased volatility is possible as news filters out of the meeting in Algiers. See charts 2-4, page 2).

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Confidence in German equities at annual high

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Confidence in German equities jumps to the highest value since a year ago. As professional investors continue to revise their expectations up, their sentiment remains dulled. Historically, the current indicator setup is a bullish sign for a positive development of the DAX stock index over the next weeks.

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