sentix Investmentmeinung 21-2016

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Eine kurzlebige Aktienrally?

Um satte 50% ist das Aktiensentiment zum deutschen Aktienmarkt in der letzten Woche angestiegen. Parallel dazu haben die Anleger auch ihre Positionierung spürbar angehoben. Es spricht viel dafür, dass die laufende Aufwärtsbewegung eher eine unterdurchschnittliche Halbwertszeit aufweisen sollte. Wir versuchen einen Ablaufplan zu skizzieren.

Geänderte Einschätzung: T-Bonds, Japanische Aktien

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sentix ASR Essentials 21-2016

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Strategic bias is poles apart on US Equities and Bonds

The latest sentix survey underlines the increasingly upbeat tone of investors’ medium-term strategic bias on equities, at a time when over-investment is back inline with longer-term average levels (see Chart 7a, page 3). In the case of the US market, a sustained upturn in readings on the S&P 500 contrasts with a sharp reversal in readings based on investors’ strategic bias on US Treasuries. A marked move towards risk-on is still evident in survey readings based on investors’ medium-term strategic bias on equity and bond markets. This also chimes with an apparent change of heart on Gold, with survey readings backing away from recent highs through the course of this month. See Charts 2-4, page 3.

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Mehr als eine gewöhnliche Übernahme

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Die Bayer AG hat eine Übernahmeofferte für Monsanto abgegeben. Würde der Deal, der gemäß dem Angebotspreis auf 55 Mrd. Euro taxiert wird, zustande kommen, Würde es sich um die größte Übernahme der Geschichte durch einen deutschen Konzern handeln.Für die Aktionäre beider Gesellschaften ist dieses Event natürlich eine spannende Angelegenheit, aber auch für alle anderen Kapitalanleger hat diese Nachricht Signalwirkung. Warum?

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sentix Investmentmeinung 20-2016

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Positive Aktiensignale im Mai

Überraschend positive Signale haben wir am Wochenende aus dem sentix Global Investor Survey erhalten. Von dem vielzitierten „sell in May“, also der oft im Mai zu beobachtenden Gewinnmitnahmetendenz zum Ende der Dividendensaison, ist in diesem Jahr wenig zu verspüren. Stattdessen zeichnen sich vor allem die institutionellen Anleger durch einen starken Anstieg im Grundvertrauen um 13% aus!

Geänderte Einschätzung: DAX, EuroSTOXX 50

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Buy in May and stay?!

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The latest sentix Global Investor Survey reveals an exceptionally positive signal for the German equity market. The prospects for a new bull market are increasing as especially the medium-term market expectation of institutional investors is on the rise.


The sentix Strategic Bias rises to a new 13 weeks high as it expresses regained medium-term conviction of German equities. Especially institutional investors’ confidence gets a boost. The sub-index rises 13 points in comparison to previous weeks’ survey. It is in principle a bullish market indication. However, it contradicts the conventional market wisdom “sell in May”.

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“Sell in May” describes the tendency of some investors to avoid period from May to October. In contrast, the increase of the sentix Strategic Bias points out that investors mentally prepare to buy instead to sell (refer to Background for a detailed explanation). Rising confidence, especially among institutional investors, is “apparently” neither caused by price indication nor by the news. Therefore, the latest signal should be taken seriously as emotions obviously were not the cause. Based on our statistical analysis, investors can theoretically expect an increase of around 2.3% over the next 16 weeks, on average, each time investors’ confidence has reached a comparable level.


Background

The sentix Strategic Bias (investors' six-month market confidence) is conducted on a weekly basis since 2001 as part of the sentix Global Investor Survey. It reflects the strategic view of market participants as well as their fundamental convictions and perceptions of value for a given market. As this indicator represents investors' general willingness to buy or sell it should not be interpreted as a contrarian signal. Rather it is usually leading the market by several weeks.
In the latest sentix Global Investor Survey was conducted from 19-May-2016 to 21-May-2016. 1032 individual and institutional investors took part in it.

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