Attention: Investors lacking risk awareness on equities!

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The latest sentix data set reveals an alarming discrepancy: investors’ fundamental belief in equity prices is still rising despite falling economic expectations. Potential risks are especially lurking in the US market. Investors are turning a blind eye on possible adverse effects for equities as economic optimism fades.

The sentix Economic Index for September drops significantly for all major markets and regions. Notably expectations of economic acceleration are on the decline. Such drops in investors’ expectations are usually early warning signs for declining equity markets. By itself, economic expectations convey an alarming message. However, in combination with results shown by the sentix Strategic Bias for equities, which aims at capturing investors’ fundamental belief in equities, the signal is even more puzzling. Strategic Bias rises, especially for US markets (see figure).

20150908 iif eco expectations bias usa eng

Discrepancies of such magnitude reflect serious risks. Though, rising skepticism about economic expectations has not raised investors’ awareness regarding equity price developments – investors still perceive an engagement in equities as an investment without alternative. Moreover, investors’ blind trust in the power of central bank interventionism is threatening. Would behavior be consistent with expectations should reactions follow suit – with negative consequences for equity price developments.

Background

The sentix Economic Index comprehends the economic expectations of respondents about nine major countries and regions. The survey takes place every first Friday of the month as part of the sentix Global Investor Surveys. The sentix Economic Index is considered a leading indicator in terms of capturing economic developments and provides investors and analysts an edge over its pear indices (“first mover” advantage). The sentix Economic Index should be interpreted directional and reflects the wisdom of the crowd, alike the sentix Strategic Bias.

The sentix Strategic Bias reflects the strategic opinion of market participants as well as their basic convictions and per-ceptions of value for a given market for a rolling 6-month period. As this indicator represents investors’ general willingness to buy or sell it should not be interpreted as a contrarian signal. Rather it is usually leading the market by several weeks.

The latest survey was conducted from September 3rd until September 5th 2015 and incorporated market opinions of 965 private and institutional investors.

 

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