sentix Economic News

Read the latest information and indications about the "first mover" among the economic indicators!

Background information on the sentix economic indicators

US dollar is a burden for the US economy

Both the current situation and the expectation values of the US economy have slowed this month. From the per-spective of investors surveyed by sentix thus, show in the US economy increasingly sanding marks, which the strong dollar may well explain. Somewhat surprisingly, however, is that we measure a significant damper for the German economy. Particularly as the rest of the euro zone is in a robust constitution. For the Euro zone, the current situation index rises to its highest level since 2011. Furthermore, the overall index improves as well.

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Growth back in the euro zone

The euro-zone economy sends clear signals of strength. Investors’ assessments of the current situation have climbed
to their highest since May 2014. But what is even more important is the continued strong improvement of investors’
6-month expectations which show their highest reading since February 2006. This gives hope that this time the
recovery is a more sustainable one enabling the euro zone to finally leave its recessionary tendencies behind. Germany
remains the area’s growth engine. On a global level, it is the US which shows some signs of slowing down,
probably a result of the ever stronger US dollar.

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Euro area with a 9-year-high, Switzerland in recession

In February the composite indices for the euro zone and Germany both rise strongly. Against the background of the details given by the ECB on its coming QE programme 6-month expectations climb to their highest reading since February 2006 for the euro zone. For Germany the composite index even reaches an all-time high. The weak euro and the low price of oil may also have helped (as in the previous months). But this positive development also has a flipside: The weakness of the euro has led the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to give up on its de-facto peg to the common currency. By doing so, the SNB has sent the Swiss economy into recession – that is at least what the sentix Economic Index for Switzerland says as it collapses this month. For the “Global Aggregate” the composite index increases for the fourth time in a row because of the improvements for the euro zone and for Japan. At the same time, the slight setback for the US might be an indication that the US economy has peaked already in the current cycle.

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Germany starts with strong tailwinds into the new year

In January, the most outstanding development in the survey of the sentix Economic Index is the, once more, strongly improved perception of the German economy. The composite index for Germany rises by 7.0 to 26.6 points and now stands at about the same level as last summer. Low oil prices and a weak euro continue to have an effect. In addition, the export champion benefits from better assessments of the world economy which are, among other things, driven by developments of the US and the Asia ex Japan indices.
In contrast, investors judge – against the background of falling oil prices – the economic situations in Eastern Eu-rope and Latin America ever worse. But interestingly, 6-month expectations for these regions are on the rise. All in all, investors are rather optimistic regarding economic dynamics in 2015.

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Coup in Euroland!

For the euro-area economy investors' 6-month expectations rise in December as strongly as only twice before in the history of the sentix Economic Index. Only in August 2005, ahead of German elections, and in February 2012, when the ECB was about to launch its second LTRO, more pronounced increases could be observed. Also, the assessment of the current situation improves which makes the composite index go up by 9.4 to now -2.5 points. With that, the sentix Economy Clock now points to an upswing for the euro zone!
For the remaining regions and countries the composite indices rise, too. The only exception is Japan. That the euro zone stands out so clearly this month should be due to the expectation that the ECB will start a large-scale as-set-buying programme soon. In addition, the weak euro and the fallen price of oil are obviously perceived as economic boosters. And the low oil price does have positive effects not only in the euro zone!

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