sentix Economic News

Read the latest information and indications about the "first mover" among the economic indicators!

Background information on the sentix economic indicators

Global momentum fades, but Japan takes off

All in all, sentix Economic Indices point to lower dynamics in the world economy indicated by weaker 6-month expectations for the Global Aggregate. However, developments are rather heterogeneous among the regions: While investors trim back their expectations for the euro area and for Germany, they raise them for Japan and the US. And, at the same time, as a rate hike by the Fed this year becomes more probable, investors’ perspectives for the emerging-markets regions get cloudy.


Eastern Europe helps Austria

In a particularly remarkable way the composite index for Austria rises this month. It signals that after a long peri-od of weakness a recovery has returned to the country. An important reason for this should be the relaxation of the tensions in Ukraine. Austria benefits strongly from economic improvements in Eastern Europe as it has firm ties with the region. Apart from this, the upturn in the euro area stabilises. And while the assessment of the current US situation weakens, 6-month expectations for the United States are back on the rise!


US dollar is a burden for the US economy

Both the current situation and the expectation values of the US economy have slowed this month. From the per-spective of investors surveyed by sentix thus, show in the US economy increasingly sanding marks, which the strong dollar may well explain. Somewhat surprisingly, however, is that we measure a significant damper for the German economy. Particularly as the rest of the euro zone is in a robust constitution. For the Euro zone, the current situation index rises to its highest level since 2011. Furthermore, the overall index improves as well.


Growth back in the euro zone

The euro-zone economy sends clear signals of strength. Investors’ assessments of the current situation have climbed
to their highest since May 2014. But what is even more important is the continued strong improvement of investors’
6-month expectations which show their highest reading since February 2006. This gives hope that this time the
recovery is a more sustainable one enabling the euro zone to finally leave its recessionary tendencies behind. Germany
remains the area’s growth engine. On a global level, it is the US which shows some signs of slowing down,
probably a result of the ever stronger US dollar.


Euro area with a 9-year-high, Switzerland in recession

In February the composite indices for the euro zone and Germany both rise strongly. Against the background of the details given by the ECB on its coming QE programme 6-month expectations climb to their highest reading since February 2006 for the euro zone. For Germany the composite index even reaches an all-time high. The weak euro and the low price of oil may also have helped (as in the previous months). But this positive development also has a flipside: The weakness of the euro has led the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to give up on its de-facto peg to the common currency. By doing so, the SNB has sent the Swiss economy into recession – that is at least what the sentix Economic Index for Switzerland says as it collapses this month. For the “Global Aggregate” the composite index increases for the fourth time in a row because of the improvements for the euro zone and for Japan. At the same time, the slight setback for the US might be an indication that the US economy has peaked already in the current cycle.


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