sentix Economic News

Read the latest information and indications about the "first mover" among the economic indicators!

Background information on the sentix economic indicators

The recession begins

When it comes to the question of when the recession began in the Eurozone, economists are likely to determine the beginning of the second quarter of 2022 as the start of a recession in retrospect. This is at least the conclusion we have to draw from the current data of the sentix business cycle indices. At the beginning of April, the sentix economic indices collapse. The overall index plunged again by a full 11 points after the weak March value. Both the situation and the expectations indexes are now negative, and the economy is thus beginning to shrink. At the moment, no other global region can provide a real counterbalance. Even the Asian region is already stagnating.

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Ukraine crisis causes economy to slump drastically

The economy in the Eurozone slumps dramatically due to the Ukraine crisis. The overall index falls to its lowest value since November 2020, with expectations eroding particularly sharply by -34.75 points. This has never happened before in the 20-year history of the sentix economic index! The picture in Germany is also comparable. The Eastern European region suffers particularly strongly and falls into a deep recession. The US economy is also being hit by the crisis shock, although not quite as hard. On the positive side, the economic situation there re-mains at 29.8 points and so far only indicates an economic slowdown. The Asian economic region is also in the wake of the global downward trend.

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View on USA and Latin America

The economic situation in the world is relatively stable in February compared to January 2022. In Euroland and al-so in Germany, we measure a slight improvement in the situation and expectations. In Asia, the picture is mixed. The development in the USA is problematic. Here the overall index is falling for the third time in a row, which is due to the decline in expectations. The signals we are receiving from Latin America are encouragingly positive.

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Stabilization is progressing

The stabilization of economic indicators is progressing in January 2022. At 14.9 points, the overall index for the euro zone increases by 1.4 points. The current assessment improves by 3.0 points, while the expectations component stagnates. The picture is similar for Germany. The figures for the Asia ex Japan region are particularly encouraging. All sub-components increased significantly. This gives more contour to our basic scenario that the global economy is recovering and finding its way out of the mid-cycle slowdown. Some world regions are even bouncing back into the boom squares of the sentix business cycle clock.

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Lockdown-Blues

The global economy is still in a process of economic slowdown. This is proceeding in an orderly manner in most regions. The situation values are declining, while the medium-term expectations remain stable or even improve. This basically confirms our expectation that we are experiencing a "mid-cycle slowdown". The situation in Euro-land, on the other hand, looks worse. The tighter lockdown measures, which have been taken above all in Ger-many and Austria, are dampening the assessments of the situation there considerably. A slowdown to the point of recession no longer seems out of the question. These lock-downs are hitting the economy harder than before.

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