sentix Economic News

Read the latest information and indications about the "first mover" among the economic indicators!

Background information on the sentix economic indicators

Small ray of hope, but no all-clear

The November data provides some hope: the economic index for the eurozone rises by 3.4 points to -18.6 points. Economic expectations in particular are surprising with an increase of 6.8 points. A similar trend can be seen for Germany. While the current assessment remains in recessionary territory, expectations are recovering even more dynamically. There are also small rays of hope in the international data. Economic expectations are rising almost everywhere, with the situation figures in the USA even showing an exclamation mark. Despite these glimmers of hope, the issue of stagnation is not yet off the table.


Not weaker, not better

The global economy is still in a difficult situation at the beginning of autumn in the northern hemisphere. In the Eurozone, and especially in Germany, the economic situation remains weak and the recessionary tendencies persist. At least there is a slight ray of hope in the form of rising expectations. However, it would be premature to declare a turnaround. If we look further into other regions, we see a largely unchanged picture. Cooling tendencies dominate. A positive trend reversal is nowhere to be found here either.


How much is missing before the crisis?

The signs for the global economy sent out by the "first mover" among the economic indicators - the sentix economic index - point to a further downturn and a strengthening of the economic downturn forces. The situation in Germany remains particularly precarious. Here we are measuring the weakest situation values since July 2020, when the economy was slowed by the first Corona lockdown. Germany is also weighing heavily on the economy in the euro zone as a whole. The recession is progressing. But even for the USA, which has so far held up well and defied the restrictive FED policy, the economic data are falling markedly. The tipping point of a global recession is less distant than one might think.


Nosedive stopped, but no all clear

At -18.9 points, the sentix economic index for the euro zone is 3.6 points higher than in July. The overall index thus stopped its nosedive. However, the assessment of the current situation remains weak at -20.5 points, while expectations have risen by 7.3 points to -17.3. Germany is providing fuel for the fire: The largest economy in the euro zone is becoming the sick man of the Eurozone and is weighing heavily on the region. The overall index for Germany falls for the fourth time in a row to -30.7 points. The situation slumped by 7.3 points, while the expectations score of -26 points also gave little cause for hope. By contrast, there are bright spots in the economic regions of the USA and Asia ex Japan.


More than a summer lull

Concerns about the further development of the global economy have probably not diminished with the latest values of the sentix business cycle indices. For in the "Global Aggregate Index" we note the fifth decline in a row. The Eurozone is certainly making a particular contribution to this. At -22.5 points, the overall index for the Eurozone has fallen to its lowest level since November 2022. The values for Germany, the most important econ-omy in the Eurozone, can only be described as "dramatically bad". However, the "Asia ex Japan" region also con-tributes significantly to the weak global picture, as the overall index here also falls for the fifth time in a row.


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