sentix Economic News

Read the latest information and indications about the "first mover" among the economic indicators!

Background information on the sentix economic indicators

Better but still not good

The Eurozone economy continues to recover at the beginning of April. The major upheavals feared as a result of the gas and electricity price crisis in Europe have failed to materialise this winter. The situation assessment of the 1,300 investors surveyed by sentix reflects this with the sixth consecutive increase in the situation values for the Eurozone. The fact that this is not an all-clear signal becomes clear when looking at the expected values. They remain negative. In Eastern Europe, a friendlier picture is painted, with an increase in both components. For the USA, we measure a deterioration of the situation and expectations, contrary to the trend. This should not go unnoticed!


Headwinds increase again

After several months of improvement in investors' assessments of the economic situation and expectations, there is a new headwind for economic development at the beginning of March. In the Eurozone, the economic situation scores improved again, for the fifth time in a row. However, the economic expectations show that we are by no means at the beginning of an upswing. Eurozone economic expectations dropped sharply to -13 points. The situation is similar in the other regions of the world. The expectation values are characterised by clear de-clines across the board.


From recession to stagnation

February data in the sentix economic indices come in better than expected. In Euroland, the overall index rises for the fourth time in a row, improving by 9.5 points to now 8 points. The increase signals that a recession is off the table for the time being. Instead, the scenario of stagnation is gaining in contour. In Germany, too, the overall index improved by around 10 points. Both the current situation (+9.2 points) and the economic expectations (+10.2 points) signal an easing of the situation, but not a final all-clear. For the economic region Asia, things are looking better again: With the fifth increase in a row, the economic region is continuing its initiated upswing: The overall index rises by +10.3 points to now +11.7 points. The assessment of the current situation and expectations are moving up together. This also benefits the overall index for the global economy, which climbs to +1.6 points - the highest value since February 2022.


It remains challenging

The January data in the sentix economic indices indicate a further improvement. In Euroland, the overall index rises for the third time in a row, improving by 3.5 points to -17.5. There is virtually no change in the assessment of the current situation, with only the expectations values signaling a greater easing of the situation. This basic trend can also be seen in the German economic figures: The assessment of the current situation remains almost unchanged, while expectations have risen by 7.3 points. It can thus be seen that the economic environment remains challenging. Despite the improvement, both subcomponents remain in deep negative territory. There is a glimmer of hope for Asia at the start of the year: expectations for the Asia ex Japan region (especially China) are rising dynamically. The end of the restrictive Corona measures in China is generating hopes of better times ahead.


More relaxation

The latest sentix economic data improve again and surprisingly significantly. Investors are spreading hope that thanks to mild winter weather, sufficient gas in storage and a possible peak in inflation data, the economic down-turn has also passed its zenith. Internationally, there are also more moderate tones from the US Federal Reserve, which is holding out the prospect of "only" 50 basis points of interest rate increases in December. And in China, the protests finally seem to point to an end to the restrictive Corona measures. So will the recession end before it has really begun?


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