sentix Economic News

Read the latest information and indications about the "first mover" among the economic indicators!

Background information on the sentix economic indicators

Differences of opinion

How is the global economy doing? The global aggregate of the sentix indices rose by 2.3 points to 10.4 points, its highest level since June 2024. This improvement is driven by Eastern Europe, Latin America and Asia excluding Japan, i.e. primarily China. Investors are also taking a more positive view of the US following the end of the US shutdown. However, there is a clear difference of opinion among investors as to whether the eurozone can also participate in a global upturn. While institutional investors are optimistic, private investors are appalled by what they perceive to be the reality of everyday life.

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Doldrums in the eurozone, rays of hope in Asia

Despite isolated rays of hope from Asia, the global economic situation remains mixed in November, with the eu-rozone in particular showing renewed weakness. The overall indicator for Eurozone falls by 2.0 points to -7.4. Both the current situation and investor expectations are deteriorating. In Germany, downward forces are prevail-ing: the index fell by 2.4 points, driven by a decline in expectations (-3.3 points). In Asia, on the other hand, op-timism prevails. Japan recorded its third consecutive increase, and the Asian region excluding Japan also remains clearly on course for growth. The US, on the other hand, continues to tread water, weighed down by the effects of the ongoing government shutdown.

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New (global) hope

The October data from the sentix economic index paints a surprisingly positive picture of the international economy. Across all regions, the more than 1,100 professional and private investors surveyed reflect an improvement in the situation and expectations. This is particularly surprising given the shutdown that has begun in the United States. Mixed signals are also coming from the eurozone. Germany in particular continues to face strong headwinds, as reflected in the real data. Investors appear to have overreacted somewhat pessimistically in September. However, the Asian region is also making an increasingly positive impression.

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The next blow for the eurozone

The new September data from the sentix economic index dashes hopes of an economic recovery. The overall value for the eurozone slipped by 5.5 points to -9.2. Both the current situation and future expectations are dete-riorating noticeably. This means that economic concerns are returning in full force. In Germany in particular, the downward trend is intensifying once again. The overall index lost 9.4 points and fell to -22.1 points there. There can therefore be no talk of a sustained improvement in sentiment in the largest economy in the eurozone. There are now also clear signs of a slowdown in the USA. Expectations have fallen to -10.8 points, while the current sit-uation is also showing signs of erosion at -0.3 points. The Asia region, including Japan, is currently proving to be a stabilising factor in the global picture. The data here remains comparatively robust and is making a decisive con-tribution to maintaining the pace of global economic growth for the time being.

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A deal that dampens the mood

Investors are not impressed by the EU's latest tariff deal with the US. With its August data, the sentix economic index is the first to assess this agreement and provide a global overview of sentiment. In addition to the EU, new results are also available for other countries, including Japan and Switzerland. The negative factors clearly out-weigh the positive ones for the global economy. The EU and Switzerland are being punished severely. The US and Donald Trump may feel like winners in the short term, but falling expectations here too indicate that this type of trade policy will mainly produce losers.

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