sentix Economic News

Read the latest information and indications about the "first mover" among the economic indicators!

Background information on the sentix economic indicators

The shock is followed by demolition

Immediately following the outbreak of the Iran War, initial signs of uncertainty began to emerge in the first-mover index in early March. Just four weeks later, a massive slump has now followed: the sentix Economic Sen-timent Index for April 2026 shows a significant decline. The sharp drop in expectations is weighing particularly heavily, pulling the overall index for the eurozone down considerably. Investors are increasingly recognising that the risk of another recession is coming back into focus. Germany, too, is recording clear declines, with expecta-tions at their lowest level since autumn 2024. The picture is similar globally: both established and emerging economies are under pressure, with global expectations falling to levels last seen in spring 2025.

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First mover with first indication after the start of the Iran war

The sentix economic index provides an initial assessment of economic development following the outbreak of the Iran war. After three consecutive improvements, the overall index for the eurozone fell by 7.3 points to -3.1, calling the recent upturn into question. Germany is also affected: the sentix economic index fell by 5.2 points to -12.1, signalling a renewed downturn after the recent glimmer of hope. Global sentiment is also deteriorating. All regions of the world are experiencing pressure on their assessment of the current situation and their expecta-tions. The sentix Global Aggregate loses 5.5 points to +9.7, while global expectations reach their lowest level since September 2025 at 7.2 points.

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Another silver lining on the horizon

At the beginning of February, the sentix economic indices are showing a silver lining for the eurozone economy. The sentix overall economic index rose for the third time in a row to +4.2 points – a substantial increase of six index points. Despite discussions about a gas shortage, the investors surveyed by sentix are also extremely confident about the German economy. Internationally, the Asian region remains the main driver of the current global upturn. Eastern Europe and Latin America are also keeping pace. The US, on the other hand, is relatively weak.

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Hopeful start to the year – global stabilisation continues

Investors are starting the new year 2026 with optimism. The sentix economic index shows an improvement in sentiment in almost all regions of the world covered. While the eurozone, and Germany in particular, continue to struggle with structural challenges but are showing signs of bottoming out, the US and, in particular, the Asia re-gion are providing new impetus for growth.

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Differences of opinion

How is the global economy doing? The global aggregate of the sentix indices rose by 2.3 points to 10.4 points, its highest level since June 2024. This improvement is driven by Eastern Europe, Latin America and Asia excluding Japan, i.e. primarily China. Investors are also taking a more positive view of the US following the end of the US shutdown. However, there is a clear difference of opinion among investors as to whether the eurozone can also participate in a global upturn. While institutional investors are optimistic, private investors are appalled by what they perceive to be the reality of everyday life.

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