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sentix Economic News

Read the latest information and indications about the "first mover" among the economic indicators!

Background information on the sentix economic indicators

Signs of global easing

Following the sharp downturn in economic sentiment in March and April 2026, triggered by the fallout from the war in Iran and the surge in crude oil prices, the sentix economic indices are now continuing their recovery for the second month in a row. Concerns about a significant economic slowdown have thus eased noticeably. The upward trend is being driven primarily by the US and Asia, where economic prospects are brightening particularly markedly and giving the global economy fresh impetus. The eurozone is also benefiting from this positive international environment, although the recovery here is less dynamic than in the leading economic regions. Germany remains the weakest link in the chain: the persistently subdued economic performance is not only weighing on the domestic economy but is also acting as a brake on the recovery of the entire eurozone.

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Germany’s unique path

Although the war in Iran is still smouldering and an end is not yet in sight, investors appear surprisingly relaxed regarding economic trends. Asia and the US in particular are showing strong rises in their overall indices. Europe, by contrast, is struggling, although the Eurozone overall index has managed to improve by at least 2.7 points. However, the German economy is weighing heavily on the figures. The ‘German Sonderweg’ is down by 3.2 points, marking the third consecutive decline. A government crisis and economic problems are currently going hand in hand.

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The shock is followed by demolition

Immediately following the outbreak of the Iran War, initial signs of uncertainty began to emerge in the first-mover index in early March. Just four weeks later, a massive slump has now followed: the sentix Economic Sen-timent Index for April 2026 shows a significant decline. The sharp drop in expectations is weighing particularly heavily, pulling the overall index for the eurozone down considerably. Investors are increasingly recognising that the risk of another recession is coming back into focus. Germany, too, is recording clear declines, with expecta-tions at their lowest level since autumn 2024. The picture is similar globally: both established and emerging economies are under pressure, with global expectations falling to levels last seen in spring 2025.

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First mover with first indication after the start of the Iran war

The sentix economic index provides an initial assessment of economic development following the outbreak of the Iran war. After three consecutive improvements, the overall index for the eurozone fell by 7.3 points to -3.1, calling the recent upturn into question. Germany is also affected: the sentix economic index fell by 5.2 points to -12.1, signalling a renewed downturn after the recent glimmer of hope. Global sentiment is also deteriorating. All regions of the world are experiencing pressure on their assessment of the current situation and their expecta-tions. The sentix Global Aggregate loses 5.5 points to +9.7, while global expectations reach their lowest level since September 2025 at 7.2 points.

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Another silver lining on the horizon

At the beginning of February, the sentix economic indices are showing a silver lining for the eurozone economy. The sentix overall economic index rose for the third time in a row to +4.2 points – a substantial increase of six index points. Despite discussions about a gas shortage, the investors surveyed by sentix are also extremely confident about the German economy. Internationally, the Asian region remains the main driver of the current global upturn. Eastern Europe and Latin America are also keeping pace. The US, on the other hand, is relatively weak.

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