sentix Euro Break-up Index News

On this page we provide information about the latest development of the sentix Euro break-up Index. This indicator shows over time, how likely individual and institutional investors rate the probabilty of a breakup of the euro area (leaving at least one country) within 12 months time. Also it reflects which countries are particularly affected.

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Investors split on euro break-up, but clear on contagion

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In June, the sentix Euro Break-up Index rises from 41.2% to 48.4%. Investors are thus almost perfectly split into two halves regarding their expectations on countries exiting the euro. In turn, they are much clearer on contagion dangers of which they think that they are barely existing.

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Some calm before the showdown

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In May, the sentix Euro Break-up Index recedes from 49.0% to 41.2%. Investors obviously take – despite Greece’s still unclear future – comments of the Hellenic government seriously that the country wants to keep the common currency. And a default on its debt could still be an option while staying in the euro! At the same time, investors rate dangers of contagion emanating from a possible euro-exit of a country as fading.

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Draghi put to the test: one out of two investors expects a “Grexit”

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In April, the sentix Euro Break-up Index jumps to 49.0% from a previous 36.8%. Thus, European politicians’ promises to pursue the scenario of Greece keeping the euro are not taken at face value by about the half of all investors. In 2012 Mario Draghi calmed down investors with his ultimate commitment to the euro. But is his pledge still valid for Greece today?

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The current policy stabilize the Eurozone, not Greece

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The probability for a break-up of the Euro area declined slightly in recent weeks. Nevertheless, with a reading of 36.8% the sentix Euro Break-up index is still on a remarkable high level. The prolongation of the “program” for Greece by the Euro area finance ministers did not make a big difference in terms of Greece. Indeed, it matters for the rest of the Euro member states as the “contagion risk index” shows.

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„Grexit“ more probable despite new programme

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The sentix Euro Break-up Index for February rises strongly from 24.3% to 38.0%. Despite the soluattion which was found last week for Greece ever more investors expect the Mediterranean country to leave the euro soon. Also, for Cyprus the exit probability increases markedly. And, in the background, the lately surprisingly firm confidence in Portugal and Spain is eroding, too.

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