sentix Euro Break-up Index News

On this page we provide information about the latest development of the sentix Euro break-up Index. This indicator shows over time, how likely individual and institutional investors rate the probabilty of a breakup of the euro area (leaving at least one country) within 12 months time. Also it reflects which countries are particularly affected.

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„Grexit“ more probable despite new programme

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The sentix Euro Break-up Index for February rises strongly from 24.3% to 38.0%. Despite the soluattion which was found last week for Greece ever more investors expect the Mediterranean country to leave the euro soon. Also, for Cyprus the exit probability increases markedly. And, in the background, the lately surprisingly firm confidence in Portugal and Spain is eroding, too.

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Investors are nervous, but not really worried

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In January, the sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) increases by 4.4 percentage points to now 24.3%, its highest reading since April 2013. It is still the situation in Greece which drives the indicator. But interestingly, investors barely see a risk of contagion anymore – an environment which makes government bonds of the periphery vulnerable.

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Greece faces an Euro exit in 2015

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The sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) climbed in December to its highest reading since August 2013. The actual level of 19.9 percent means that about one fifth of all investors expects at least one country to leave the Euro zone in 2015. At it is Greece that investors have in mind for such a "break-up".

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“Grexit” despite “grecovery”?

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The sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) barely changes in November and now stands at 11.6%. Obviously, Mario Draghi's latest announcements have not really impressed investors as far as the integrity of the common currency is concerned. It is mainly Greece about which investors again worry. But France does not look good either.

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There the wood creaks

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The sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) increases significantly in October from 7.7% to 11.8%. This is the highest reading since February 2014. The rising problems on the economic front of the Eurozone start again to undermine the stability of the Eurozone. To the weak readings in the EBI even the results of the Euro zone banking stress tests, which were already known in the market during the survey, could not change anything.

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