sentix ASR Essentials 10-2016

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Investors less on the sector defensive; but still wary on EZ equities

The latest sentix survey points to continued uncertainty on the outlook for eurozone (EZ) equities. This is despite signs that investors have become less defensive in terms of their sector preferences. On this front, the past month has seen optimism on cyclical sectors such as Basic Resources, Chemicals and Construction increase, while participants have become less downbeat on Financial Services and Banks. At the same time, survey readings on defensives such as Healthcare and Food & Beverage have weakened, while the recent revival in Utilities sentiment has begun to unwind. However, readings based on investors’ medium-term strategic bias on the DAX and EuroSTOXX are weakening. Caution is still the ‘watch word’ on EZ equities. On the other side of the sentiment divide, investors are as upbeat on Gold from a medium-term perspective as they have been since 2012. See p2 for charts.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 09-2016

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Wenig Vorfreude auf Draghi = wenig Risiko?

Wer erinnert sich nicht an die Tage vor der EZB-Sitzung Anfang Dezember 2015. Mario Draghi hatte im Vorfeld eine aggressive Kommunikationspolitik verfolgt und die Erwartungen der Marktteilnehmer kräftig geschürt. Die Vorfreude der Anleger auf diese Sitzung war so groß, dass wir bei sentix ein rekordhohes Sentiment messen konnten – und massiv vor Enttäuschungen warnen mussten. In dieser Woche steht wieder eine EZB-Sitzung an. Die EZB hat zwar im Vorfeld weit weniger in Aussicht gestellt, dennoch sind die Markterwartungen an weitere Zinsmaßnahmen nicht gerade klein. Droht erneut eine herbe Enttäuschung?

Geänderte Einschätzung: Bund Future

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sentix ASR Essentials 09-2016

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Analysis will be published on Tuesday 08th March 2016 (due to banking holiday in UK)

sentix Investmentmeinung 08-2016

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Strategischer Bias als Vorlaufindikator zur COT-Positionierung

In der laufenden Woche gibt es wenige neue Highlights. Dies gibt uns Zeit, ein paar grundsätzliche Zusammenhänge zu betrachten. Diese betreffen den Strategischen Bias, einen unserer wichtigsten Indikatoren. Der Strategische Bias reflektiert die Grundüberzeugung der Anleger und reflektiert damit Wissen der Anleger. Der Indikator ist im Gegensatz zum Sentiment nicht konträr zu interpretieren, sondern läuft oftmals der Marktentwicklung vor.

Geänderte Einschätzung: keine

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sentix ASR Essentials 08-2016

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Investors still cautious on Equities; but taking a shine to Gold

The latest sentix survey suggests that while near-term sentiment towards equities has revived from recent pessimism extremes, investors remain relatively cautious on the medium-term. The recent improvement in investors’ views on the medium-term strategic outlook for indices such as the EuroSTOXX appears to have quickly lost momentum, with survey readings declining over the week. At the same time, survey participants are running with below average levels of over-investment in equities. In short, the recent bounce-back in markets has not yet been sufficient to allay survey respondents’ medium-term concerns over equities. Such caution, along with recent falls in US real yields, chimes with continued optimism on the medium-term outlook for Gold (Charts 2-4, P2).

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