sentix ASR Essentials 09-2015


Investors still upbeat on Equities; but less certain on medium-term

The latest sentix survey suggests that investors remain relatively positive on the outlook for equities from a medium-term strategic perspective. Indeed, monthly questions covering investors’ positioning also indicate that over-investment in European equities versus the long-term average level remains elevated. That said there are a couple of straws in the wind which point to a change of sentiment tack. For one thing, readings on the medium-term strategic outlook for the EuroSTOXX have begun to edge back from recent highs, though they remain high-end. For another, sentix medium-term Neutrality indicators have begun to back away from recent lows. This suggests that there is a little less certainty on the strategic outlook for the EuroSTOXX among those investors polled (see Pages 2 and 3).

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Ergebnisse des sentix Global Investor Survey (KW 08-2015)

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Die Stimmung an Europas Börsen bleibt gut, kühlt sich aber im Vergleich zur Vorwoche leicht ab. Es verwundert, wie robust sich die Börsen präsentieren, obwohl die Grexit-Wahrscheinlichkeit deutlich angestiegen ist. Es dürften die mittelfristigen Perspektiven sein, welche die Anleger bei Laune halten: Der Strategische Bias bleibt hoch, wobei insbesondere die japanische Börse und die US-Technologiewerte deutlicher in der Anlegergunst zulegen können.

Lesen Sie hier die Ergebniskommentierung (sentix Registrierung erforderlich)


Besser ein Ende mit Schrecken als Schrecken ohne Ende

Griechenlands Schuldenproblem beschäftigt die Politik, die Medien und die Anleger mehr denn je. Unsere wöchentliche Sonderbefragung zur Grexit-Wahrscheinlichkeit stieg zum Wochenschluss von 32% auf 39%. Erstaunlich ist hierbei die Gelassenheit der Aktienmärkte. Der Strategische Bias bleibt hoch, Ängste lassen sich über das Sentiment keine messen. Es stellt sich die Frage, ob die Anleger „sehenden Auges“ in ihr „Verderben“ laufen.

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sentix ASR Essentials 07-2015


Poles apart on Autos and Energy

The latest sentix survey underlines that investors’ views on sectors have continued to become less defensive. On one hand, monthly survey readings on Healthcare, Food & Beverage and Utilities have further declined in the past month. On the other, survey participants have become less cautious on the six month outlook for cyclical sectors such as Industrial Goods & Services, Chemicals and Autos. Indeed, in the case of Autos, survey readings have returned to historic highs (see Chart 2, page 2). At the same time, pessimism on Energy versus the market has become a little less extreme in the past month, though survey respondents have also become less positive on Crude Oil from a medium-term strategic perspective (Charts 3-4). Pessimism on resource plays has lessened in the past couple of months, though readings remain poles apart on the likes of Energy versus Autos.

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sentix ASR Essentials 06-2015


Economic optimism tempers Bond enthusiasm

The latest Sentix survey points to still improving economic expectations for the eurozone and Germany (with the sentix German Expectations indicator reaching record highs this month). However, good news on economic expectations may be bad news for eurozone bonds. A growing belief in a brighter economic outlook for Germany and the Eurozone appears to be tempering survey respondents’ enthusiasm for Bonds. Survey readings indicate that economics as a ‘bond topic’ has become markedly less bond-bullish on a six month view (see Chart 3, page 2). Bonds may be trending higher, but improving macro views appear to be tempering investors’ enthusiasm for Eurozone bonds in the medium-term.

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sentix ASR Essentials 05-2015


A change of tack on Eurozone versus US Equities?

The latest sentix survey points to an interesting divergence of opinion on Eurozone and US Equity markets. In the case of the DAX Index, investors have become a little less optimistic on the near-term outlook, but remain highly positive from a mediumterm strategic bias perspective. They are also continuing to warm to the mediumterm prospects for the Euro versus the US Dollar. However, in the case of the US market, the past couple of weeks have seen medium-term survey readings on the S&P 500 modestly reverse (see Charts 2 and 3, page 2). It appears that investors are beginning to view Eurozone equities in a more favourable light than their largecap US peers.

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