sentix ASR Essentials 08-2018

Written by Patrick Hussy | 25 February 2018
Posted in sentix Weekly

Mind the big strategic bias gap between Gold and Oil

The latest sentix survey underlines the large gap that remains in terms of investors’ medium-term strategic bias on Gold compared to Crude oil. This in part reflects investors’ increasingly downbeat view on the outlook for oil, with survey readings now close to historic lows. However, the unusually large gap is also consistent with this year’s dollar weakness. On this front, it is notable that in recent weeks optimism on Gold has begun to recede as sentiment on USD/JPY has reversed from lows. Gold sentiment may be further tarnished if the dollar’s revival continues. It could also challenge investors’ polarised views on the medium-term outlook for Gold as compared to oil. See charts 2-4, p2.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 07-2018

Written by Manfred Hübner | 19 February 2018
Posted in sentix Weekly

Wie ungemütlich wird es?

Nach der heftigen Korrektur an der Wall Street Anfang Februar folgte ein ebenso beherzter Rebound. Alles also halb so schlimm wie es scheint. Doch die sentix-Daten sprechen eine andere Sprache. Die Investoren fassen keinen Mut und sehen die Korrektur nicht als reinigendes Gewitter. Stattdessen sendet der Strategische Bias das Signal einen weiteren Vertrauensschwundes.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: EuroSTOXX 50, S&P 500, EUR-JPY

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sentix ASR Essentials 07-2018

Written by Patrick Hussy | 18 February 2018
Posted in sentix Weekly

A dollar rally could tarnish Gold versus Oil

Around a month ago we noted that a lot of positive sentiment was baked into commodities as a grouping, as well as emerging equity markets. The latest sentix survey suggests some of that optimism has receded. In the case of commodities, an interesting divergence has emerged in terms of investors’ medium-term bias on Gold (rising) and Crude Oil (falling sharply). The gap between strategic bias readings on both markets has now reached historic highs, which fits with recent US dollar weakness given Gold’s stronger inverse historic correlation. A bounce in the dollar could see this Gold-Oil gap begin to close, especially with Crude Oil strategic bias readings now at the low-end of their historic range. See charts 2-4, p2.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 06-2018

Written by Manfred Hübner | 12 February 2018
Posted in sentix Weekly

Zwischenerholung

Trotz stark fallender Aktienpreise messen wir keine Angst oder gar Panik unter den Anlegern. Dieser Befund widerspricht scheinbar der Diagnose in den Medien, die allenthalben von Panik an den Märkten reden. Aber die aus Preisen abgeleitete Beobachtung ist eines, die konsistente Messung von Stimmungen ein anderes!

Geänderte Einschätzungen: S&P 500, EUR-JPY, Bund Future

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sentix ASR Essentials 06-2018

Written by Manfred Hübner | 11 February 2018
Posted in sentix Weekly

Back on the defensives

The latest sentix survey indicates that investor pessimism on the near-term outlook for equities is now notable, but not extreme. Monthly survey questions on investors’ views on European sectors paint a similar sentiment picture. Investors have become a little more upbeat on the outlook for defensive sectors such as Food & Beverage and Healthcare, and less optimistic on sectors such as Autos, Chemicals and Construction. There are signs that the correction in equity markets is pushing investors onto a more defensive sector tack. That said, they remain deeply downbeat on Utilities, which remains the least loved sector in a relative context. See page 2 for charts.

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