sentix ASR Essentials 25-2014

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Commodities optimism on the up

The sentix survey indicates that investor sentiment towards Commodities continues to improve. At an asset class level, sentiment readings are steadily pulling away from their 2014 lows (see Chart 3, page 2). At a market level, the latest survey revealed sharp improvement in short and medium-term sentiment readings for Gold (Chart 2). This improved tone of sentiment towards Commodities is consistent with the more optimistic views on the outlook for Emerging Markets that have emerged in recent months, though in the near-term survey participants have become a little less upbeat on the medium-term prospects for the Chinese market (Chart 4).

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sentix ASR Essentials 24-2014

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Macro moves seen as less Bond-supportive

The latest Sentix survey underlines the ongoing improvement in sentiment towards equity markets (see Page 3), set against a less upbeat view on European bonds. While the past week has seen medium-term sentiment readings for Bunds tick a little higher, they remain well down from their May high-point, even as Bund prices have remained firm. This caution chimes with other readings that also indicate that survey participants view economic developments and inflation as having become less bond-supportive in the medium-term (Charts 2 and 3, page 2). Investors' caution on European Bonds may in part be reflecting changing opinion on the macro backdrop, and its implications for Bonds. 

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sentix ASR Essentials 23-2014

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Investors are polls apart on Equities compared to Bonds

The latest sentix survey points to a widening gap between investor opinion on equities and bonds. In the case of sentiment towards the near-term prospects for both assets, survey readings are running at relatively neutral levels. However, a gap is emerging in terms of medium-term expectations, which tend to not only be driven by price and emotions, but also by valuation. While survey respondents are becoming more upbeat about the six month outlook for global equity indices (see Charts 2 and 6), sentiment towards bonds is weakening (Chart 3). Even as Bund futures test two year highs, investor caution is growing towards their prospects in the medium-term.

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sentix ASR Essentials 22-2014

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Due to travelling, this week we publish no English commentary. Please check the sentix charts for yourself or read our German research.

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Click here to access the sentix charts 

sentix ASR Essentials 21-2014

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Oil optimism burning more brightly

The sentix survey indicates that investor sentiment towards Commodities is continuing to improve. At an asset class level, sentiment readings are steadily pulling away from their Q1 lows (see Chart 3, page 2). At a market level, the latest survey revealed an especially sharp improvement in short and medium-term sentiment readings for Crude Oil (Chart 2). The past week has seen investors become markedly more upbeat on the outlook for Oil, albeit near-term survey readings are not yet extended in a historic context. In the case of Commodities overall, the improved tone of sentiment remains consistent with survey participants' more optimistic views on the outlook for Emerging Markets.

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