sentix Investmentmeinung 46-2017

Written by Manfred Hübner | 20 November 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

EUR-JPY vor Trendentscheidung

Das Platzen der Jamaika-Sondierungen perlt an den Aktienmärkten ab. Die Vorfreude auf ein freundliches Jahresende überwiegt bei den Investoren gegenüber den Sorgen um eine Fortsetzung des politischen Vakuums in Deutschland. In Zeiten scheinbar unendlicher Prosperität mag eine handlungsfähige Regierung entbehrlich sein. Das ändert sich aber in dem Moment, wo wichtige Entscheidungen zu treffen wären.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: USD-JPY

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sentix ASR Essentials 46-2017

Written by Patrick Hussy | 19 November 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

High neutrality points to pick-up in Gold volatility

The latest sentix survey underlines the continued interplay between sentiment on emerging equity markets and commodities. Investors’ less positive opinion on the outlook for emerging equity markets chimes with their a modestly less upbeat view on commodities as an asset class. This can be seen at a market level, with optimism on Crude oil receding from elevated levels as November’s OPEC meeting draws closer. Modest optimism is also a feature on Gold, though this is set against historically high levels of investor ‘neutrality’ on its near-term outlook as future near $1300. It also suggests increased potential for a pick-up in Gold volatility from reasonably low levels (based on CBOE Gold Volatility Index). See Charts 2-4, p2.

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Relaxation à la Trump

Written by Manfred Hübner | 16 November 2017
Posted in Special research

In November, investor concerns over political developments eased slightly. This is mainly due to the fact that geopolitics and the US president are assessed more favorably. An opposite trend is observed in the Brexit theme, which is gaining negative momentum. And even the difficult government formation in Germany weighs on the policy barometer.

The sentix policy barometer may improve slightly in November. Especially declining geopolitical concerns of investors and a better assessment of the topic "Trump" contribute to this. However, less encouraging is the development of the topic "Brexit". This seems to be gaining momentum for investors. Difficult government formation and the possibility of new elections are contributing to the decline in the "elections" sub-index.

Interesting is the development of the assessment of the US president. Although his personal and professional assessment remains critical, investors are increasingly getting used to the situation. In addition, all policy areas are assessed more favorably than in recent months. Above all, the hope for a realization of the tax reduction project is appreciated.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 45-2017

Written by Manfred Hübner | 13 November 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

Ein zarter Silberglanz

Edelmetall-Investoren hatten in den letzten Monaten nicht allzu viel zu lachen. Zwar liegen Gold und Silber seit Jahresanfang im Plus, doch außer einem guten ersten Quartal hatten die beiden führenden Edelmetalle nicht zu bieten. Bei Platin sieht es auch nicht besser aus. Doch nun zeichnet sich bei Silber ein „Silberstreif“ am Horizont ab.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: Silber

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sentix ASR Essentials 45-2017

Written by Manfred Hübner | 12 November 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

Investors poles apart on Media and Energy

The latest sentix survey provides an insight into investors’ opinion on European markets and sectors as we move deeper into Q4. At a market level, sentiment towards equities has suffered a setback in recent weeks, though the latest survey also revealed a modest increase in investors’ medium-term strategic bias on indices. At a sector level, a month ago we highlighted the deep pessimism that overhung both Retailing and Media. While Retail pessimism has moderated in the past month, investors remain deeply downbeat on Media, with readings again running at historic lows. On the other side of the sentiment divide investors have become markedly more optimistic on Energy, with survey readings reaching five-year highs, even as optimism on Oil has modestly receded as this month’s OPEC meeting draws nearer. Investors are poles apart on Media and Energy. See pages 2 and 3 for charts.

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