sentix Investmentmeinung 01-2018

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Wie riskant sind US-Aktien?

Das Research-Portfolio hatte keinen guten Jahresausklang. Die von uns favorisierten Marktbewegungen sind überwiegend nicht so eingetreten wie erwartet, obwohl zum Teil sehr starke Signale vorlagen. Die-sem Umstand müssen wir Rechnung tragen und Position für Position betrachten: wo ist ein Comeback zu erwarten und wo müssen wir die Fehlprognose durch einen Stopp-Loss beenden?

Geänderte Einschätzungen: EuroSTOXX 50, EUR-JPY, Gold

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Danger of overheating

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In January 2018, there was no sign of a loss of momentum in the sentix economic indices, which we were able to detect in the beginning of December. On the contrary: all regions of the world show a stable, positive and moderately improved economic picture. The US economic expectations, which are stimulated by the tax reform, have improved particularly significantly. In the eurozone, too, progress is continuing. And even latecomers such as Eastern Europe and Latin America continue to improve. The upswing is thus broad and synchronous. The likelihood of overheating is increasing.

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sentix ASR Essentials 01-2018

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Rising tide of equity optimism reaches highly elevated levels

The new year has started on the front foot for developed and emerging market equities, helped by still upbeat macro data and declining uncertainty on the near- term outlook for markets (see chart 7, page 3). In the case of global equities, the dominant near-term theme is now elevated optimism, with sentiment readings on indices in the US, Asia and the eurozone reaching the high-end of their historic range in the first week of 2018. The current highly elevated degree of optimism may be a near-term risk for equities as markets move into Q1. See Page 2 for charts.

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sentix ASR Essentials 52-2017

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Silvester Edition

We wish all our survey participants a prosperous new year 2018!

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Catalonia election without influence

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The euro-zone ends 2017 in a stable state. Although the regional elections in Catalonia did not bring about any change in the status quo of Catalonia's autonomy issue, investors see no reason to draw negative conclusions for the euro zone. The sentix Euro Break-up Index rose only marginally from 7.91% to 8.35%. The sub-index for Spain rose from 0.63% to 1.24%. That's not a critical level yet.

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