sentix ASR Essentials 44-2017

Written by Patrick Hussy | 05 November 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

Nikkei optimism boosted by Yen pessimism

The latest sentix survey indicates that investors have become modestly less optimistic on the near-term outlook for equities (albeit survey readings remain elevated), while their medium-term strategic bias on equities continues to weaken. In the case of Japanese equities, rising sentiment in recent weeks has chimed with growing optimism on USD/JPY. This week’s reversal in USD/JPY sentiment from high optimism levels is, therefore, consistent with receding optimism on the Nikkei. It suggests that a continued lessening in Yen pessimism could undermine still high optimism levels on the Nikkei 225. See Page 2 for charts.

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Catalonia without any noticeable effect

Written by Manfred Hübner | 31 October 2017
Posted in sentix Euro Break-up Index News

The probability of a break-up of the Eurozone measured by the sentix euro break-up index has slightly increased in October. It rose by 0.4 percentage points to 8.1%. This slight increase is quite surprising in view of the unrest in Spain. The Spanish sub index has even fallen from 0.9% to 0.6%. A little more concern for investors is Austria. The foreseeable participation of the FPÖ in the government has contributed to an increase in the sub index of Austria in the last two months from under 0.3% to more than 0.8%.

sentix Investmentmeinung 43-2017

Written by Manfred Hübner | 30 October 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

There are no translations available.

Zwischen Euphorie und Saisonalität

Mit Halloween beginnt eigentlich an den US-Börsen die „starke Periode“, die nach Thanksgiving sogar noch an Dynamik gewinnt. In diesem Jahr jedoch haben sich die US-Aktienmärkte seit August saisonuntypisch und deutlich positiver entwickelt als in früheren Jahren. Nun messen wir ein sehr bullishes Sentiment bei gleichzeitig fallender Bias. Zwei Statistiken stehen sich damit gegenüber.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: keine

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Very good sentiment on the stock market

Written by Manfred Hübner | 30 October 2017
Posted in Special research

How much the world can change for investors within two months! In the middle of August, we had still measured panic among the investors. Two months later, the mood has changed completely. Now there is almost a euphoric sentiment. In August, the (still unresolved) North Korean conflict was in the center of consideration, now it is the prospect of a further expansive monetary policy and the robust economy that the investor is concerned with.

sentix ASR Essentials 43-2017

Written by Manfred Hübner | 29 October 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

High optimism and low neutrality may be a risk for equities

The rising tide of optimism on equities has lifted near-term sentiment readings on the EuroSTOXX Index to highly elevated levels. This has occurred despite a continued weakening in investors’ strategic bias on equities from recent highs. In short, high optimism on the near-term outlook is set against a less upbeat view on the medium-term prospects for markets. It is also set against increasingly high levels of investor ‘certainty’ on the near-term outlook, based on the sentix Neutrality indices. It is a combination that points to the potential for increased equity volatility in the near-term. See Charts 2-4 and 7, p2 and 3.