sentix Survey results (47-2020)

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Stable basic confidence

This week, the stock markets have further consolidated the sentiment impulse from the US election week. However, the high level of basic strategic confidence remains positive. As a result, TD values remain in negative territory and are thus well away from a sell indication. A further seasonal strength phase is now beginning, which will last until around December 6th. 2020 could therefore still end on a positive note for equities. Precious metals, on the other hand, will probably find it difficult to set any further positive accents in 2020.

Further results:

  • Precious metals: Not much more to expect in 2020
  • Crude oil: Basic confidence increases
  • sentix styles - Investor preferences & behavior
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sentix Survey results (46-2020)

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All-time high in equity bias for US stocks

The strategic bias for US equities reaches a new all-time high of +41 percentage points! Neither the squabbles over the presidential succession nor the sharp rise in infection figures leave investors in any doubt that the stock market should be higher in 6 months' time-span. At the same time, the stock sentiment has cooled down somewhat. Consequently, the outlook for the global stock markets is improving.

Further results:

  • Equities: Overconfidence - Missing
  • Gold: Bias cracks
  • sentix sector sentiment

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sentix Survey results (45-2020)

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"shake-up experience” of a special kind

The high level of pessimism in the stock market sentiment during the previous week turned out to be an ideal contrarian entry signal. The subsequent counterattack on the global stock markets impressed investors, flanked by the outcome of the US presidential election. This creates a "shake-up experience” of a special kind: investors realize the improvement on the global political stage and raise their sentiment by around 55 (!) percent. The jump in sentiment is to be understood as a sentiment impulse.

Further results:

  • Equities: Fourth strongest sentiment impulse in history
  • Crude oil: Bias turns up
  • sentix economic index: New data on 09th Nov. 2020 / 10:30 CET

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sentix Survey results (44-2020)

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Parallels to the first lockdown

The second lockdown, whether light or not, imposed in many countries has contributed to considerable uncertainty among investors. Sentiment levels are falling sharply. But surprisingly, basic strategic confidence remains unaffected. This is a statistically promising starting position, but unfortunately also one that resembles that of the end of February 2020. So it will be exciting in the short term.

Further results:

  • FX: Euro consolidation not completed
  • Oil: Bearish sentiment

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sentix Survey results (43-2020)

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The Corona-Regret Aversion

The number of new corona infections is increasing worldwide, the US presidential election is approaching. Does this increase the price risks from the perspective of Behavioral Finance analysis? The risk radar indicates moderate opportunities. By comparison, at the end of August we had a much higher risk setup. In addition, the stock bias signals growing confidence, and there is still a need for action in the portfolios, especially among institutional investors (see positioning data on p.5).

Further results:

  • Equities: Price risk? Not really!
  • Gold: Still constructive
  • sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

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