sentix Survey results (42-2020)

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Collapse in sentiment

The importance of investors’ basic trust measured by the strategic bias at sentix, for the development of the share price can be seen from the positioning behaviour of investors in US technology shares. The bias increase has been reflected in a clear reversal in the COT data over the last two weeks. Does this mean that the recovery is already over? The sharp drop in sentiment last week and stable fundamental confidence argue against it.

Further results:

  • FX: Euro consolidation not completed
  • Gold: High basic confidence
  • sentix styles - Investor preferences & behavior

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sentix Survey results (41-2020)

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Equities: Best mood since mid February 2020

The "wall of fear" is slowly breaking down. We are measuring the highest sentiment among equities since the beginning of the Corona crisis in mid-February. sentix leads the movement with its indicators as a "first mover". Many a sentiment index will have to follow this in the next few days and weeks. One example is the AAII in the US, whose bear quota is still high. On the positive side, the fact remains that the stock bias is going through the roof in many countries.

Further results:

  • China equities: Bias goes through the roof
  • Bonds: US bonds increasingly on the sidelines
  • sentix sector sentiment

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sentix Survey results (40-2020)

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Chinese Equities: Corona crisis like wiped away Equities

For the autumn, the stock market is becoming increasingly willing to buy. US stocks and especially China stocks are on the wish list. Conversely, investors are turning away from fixed-income securities. This trend does not apply to all safe-haven investments: gold continues to spread its attraction for investors. The expected portfolio adjustment for gold is progressing and favors a sustained upward path.

Further results:

  • Equities: Continued strong TD signals
  • Precious metals: Gold continues to excite
  • sentix economic index: New data on 05th Oct. 2020 / 10:30 CEST

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sentix Survey results (39-2020)

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Sentiment with contrary signals

We are repeating our chart from the previous week, as the constellation depicted there, negative Nasdaq positioning and further increasing basic confidence, has strengthened once again. Tech shares were already able to buck the general trend in the past week. The sentix data constellation indicates that this should continue to be the case in the coming weeks.

Further results:

  • Equities: Professionals gain basic strategic confidence
  • Precious metals: Silver with all-time low in TD-Index
  • sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

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Seasonal stress test

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The summer months of August and September are considered a difficult period on the stock markets. The vacation period in the northern hemisphere not only leads to a lower trading volume, but usually also to greater price fluctuations and, as a result, to price losses.

Since 1990, these two months are the only ones that have brought on average a negative performance for investors in the S&P 500 and DAX. A closer look at the seasonal trends reveals that August is a month with more frequent vola-tile escapades. The negative September performance, on the other hand, is mainly due to the crisis years 2001 and 2008, when the attacks on the World Trade Center (2001) and the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers (2008) brought the stock markets to their knees.

Compared to the seasonal pattern, August 2020 was much more relaxed, probably due in part to the chronically negative mood of investors in the year of the Corona crisis. However, the negative sentiment was by no means homogeneous in recent times. In the technology sector in particular, we saw a high degree of carelessness and speculative interest at the end of August, which is now reflected in price losses in September.

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