High risks with gold - entry only after consolidation

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High risks with gold - entry only after consolidation

With gold, we are currently measuring a clearly tense risk constellation. The overall risk index for gold amounts to -1.13 standard deviations.

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Risk of contagion continues to decrease

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In Euroland, summer rest begins. Following the European elections and the filling of government positions in the EU, Italy has also recently brought some relief. This is reflected in the Euro Break-up Index, which at 8.9 points once again falls below the 10 percent threshold. The easing is even more visible in the index, which measures the risk of contagion. This one marks a new three-year low.

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sentix Survey results (30-2019)

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Silver bias goes through the ceiling

At 71 percent, the strategic bull overhang in silver marks an absolute record. The strategic bias on silver rises to dizzying heights and illustrates the extremely high basic conviction among investors. A reaction in the positioning behavior has already taken place! With almost 55,000 contracts traded (CoT Report), speculations on a rising silver price predominate. It remains positive that the sentiment for silver (see also page 4 middle) with +30% clearly lags behind the bias.

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Sample of the pre-election years does not bring any seasonal re-lief

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Sample of the pre-election years does not bring any seasonal relief

The Lent period on the stock markets is about to begin. From now on the friendly period for shares ends. Volatile, low-yield stock market weeks lie ahead of us.

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sentix Survey results (29-2019)

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The bear comes back, but he's not yelling out

The two large investor camps are once again taking different paths in their strategic considerations. The difference between the bias of institutional and private investors has risen again to 10 points for the US equity market. The private sector is therefore much more sceptical than the investment professionals. As a rule, this is a good sign for the stock markets. On an 8-week horizon, the S&P 500 will rise by an average of 2.8 percent after such a signal. But there are also rare exceptions: September 2018!

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