The breadth of the upturn is right

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The sentix economic indices for Euroland also signal a stable constitution in September. The overall index rises slightly to 28.2 points. The situation index and expectations show little change in the previous month. Last month, the German and US data were disappointing. There are moderate counter-movements in both regions this month. All other world regions remain on a growth path. In Japan the situation is strikingly upward and reaches the highest value since summer 2007.

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sentix ASR Essentials 35-2017

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Signs of caution on EUR/USD in medium-term

The latest sentix survey indicates that investors remain upbeat on equities from a medium-term strategic perspective, but have become a little less positive on bunds. There are also signs that investors are becoming more cautious on the euro heading into a month that will see central bank meetings return to the fore, starting with the ECB on Thursday. Near-term sentiment readings on EUR/USD are now back at relatively neutral levels. At the same time, investors are becoming less positive on the medium-term outlook for the euro versus the US dollar. In short, investor enthusiasm for the single currency has moderated ahead of this week’s ECB meeting. See Page 2 for charts.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 34-2017

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Saisonale Wenden

Jackson Hole, die jährliche Konferenz der wichtigsten Notenbank-Chefs, hat keine greifbaren Ergebnisse gebracht. Weder FED, noch die EZB, haben sich in die Karten schauen lassen. Allerdings steht bei der EZB Anfang September dennoch ein Richtungsentscheid an. Der hohe TD-Index-Wert sowie der starke technische Widerstand bei 165,90 eröffnen u.E. eine Verkaufsgelegenheit. Zudem zeigt sich bei Rohöl ein altbekanntes Phänomen.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: Bund Future, Rohöl

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Amazingly relaxed

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Investors look at the Eurozone with astonishing serenity. Neither the prospect of an early ending of the ECB purchase program nor the decision of the Karlsruhe Constitutional Court (referral to the European Court of Justice) or the political ideas in Italy (introduction of a double currency) have unsettled investors. The sentix Euro Break-up In-dex drops to 8.0% (from 8.9%) and the sub-index for Italy also drops from 5.5% to 4.6%!

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sentix ASR Essentials 34-2017

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Equities: The fear declines

The absence of negative news which caused indignation has slightly improved the equity mood. Technically, stocks have not been able to break free, so that the final release has not happened yet. However, due to the stable Bias and favourable positioning data, the expectation for a positive fourth quarter remains unchanged. In contrast to oil. Here, the Bias declines and reveals a clear risk factor.

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