sentix ASR Essentials 45-2016

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Bonds sentiment bashed; Banks and Healthcare sentiment boosted

The US election result has cast a shadow across the latest sentix survey. At an asset level, pessimism has grown more notable on bonds, with readings on bunds sentiment becoming even more deeply entrenched at the low end of the historic sentiment range (see Chart 8, page 4). In terms of opinions on the US, the gap between investors’ strategic bias on the S&P 500 versus US 10Y Treasuries has also sharply increased. Bond sentiment on both sides of the Atlantic has been a notable casualty from the unexpected US election result. In a European equity context, the big winners have been Banks and Healthcare, where sentiment has markedly improved over the past month relative to the market. See page 2 for charts.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 44-2016

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Alles dreht sich um die Wahl!?

Aus diesem Grund sparen wir uns heute viele Worte und verweisen auf unser Webinar am Donnerstag, zu dem Sie sich hier (http://www.sentix.de/index.php/Woolly-Thoughts-Blog/sentix-webinar-zur-us-wahl.html) noch anmelden können. Da sich eben nicht nur alles um die Wahl dreht empfehlen wir auch einen Blick auf unsere aktuelle Kommentierung der neuesten sentix-Konjunkturdaten (http://konjunktur.sentix.de) sowie unser heute geführtes Interview im Aktionär TV (http://www.deraktionaer.tv/video/sentix-konjunkturerwartungen-im-november-positiv-50186596.html)! Portfolioänderungen gibt es heute keine.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: Keine

Klicken Sie hier für die aktuelle Investmentmeinung (sentix Registrierung erforderlich)

sentix ASR Essentials 44-2016

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Macro expectations bearish for Bunds; supporting EZ/US equity bias

The sentix survey underlines the continued relationship between macro developments and markets. In the case of the Eurozone (EZ), the sentix Economic Expectations Index is running at its highest level since December 2015, rising from +10.8 to +14.0 in November. At a market level, economics are seen as an increasingly bearish theme for Bunds, which chimes with investors’ still notably negative medium-term strategic bias on bonds. However, macro views also appear to be at work in equities, with relative economic expectations consistent with the more positive medium-term strategic bias of survey participants on Eurozone equities versus the US that has recently emerged. Macro expectations continue to play an important role in setting market opinions. See Page 2 for charts.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 43-2016

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Bonds mit starken Signalen

Die Bondmärkte stehen derzeit im Mittelpunkt des Anlegerinteresses. Zumindest messen wir dort die stärksten Stimmungsausschläge. Das Sentiment ist auf den tiefsten Stand seit dem Bond-Crash im Frühjahr 2015 gefallen. Steht damit eine Wende nach oben unmittelbar bevor? Oder ist diese Entwicklung nur der Vorbote für noch stärkere Kursverluste? Bei USD-JPY schließen wir unsere Position (siehe Ergebniskommentierung von Sonntag).

Geänderte Einschätzungen: USD-JPY

Klicken Sie hier für die aktuelle Investmentmeinung (sentix Registrierung erforderlich)

sentix ASR Essentials 43-2016

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Bund pessimism reaches high end of historic range

The latest sentix survey points to increasingly entrenched pessimism on the nearterm outlook for US and Eurozone Bonds. In the case of Bund futures, sentiment readings have reached levels not seen in five years, and are now firmly set at the low end of their historic range. At the same time, monthly questions on investor positioning revealed that survey participants’ levels of over-investment in bonds have dropped well below long-term average levels. In conclusion, near-term pessimism on bunds is running at relatively stretched levels, though at the same time investors’ medium-term strategic bias on bunds has become a little less negative (see Charts 2-3, p2).

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