sentix ASR Essentials 44-2016

Written by Patrick Hussy | 06 November 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Macro expectations bearish for Bunds; supporting EZ/US equity bias

The sentix survey underlines the continued relationship between macro developments and markets. In the case of the Eurozone (EZ), the sentix Economic Expectations Index is running at its highest level since December 2015, rising from +10.8 to +14.0 in November. At a market level, economics are seen as an increasingly bearish theme for Bunds, which chimes with investors’ still notably negative medium-term strategic bias on bonds. However, macro views also appear to be at work in equities, with relative economic expectations consistent with the more positive medium-term strategic bias of survey participants on Eurozone equities versus the US that has recently emerged. Macro expectations continue to play an important role in setting market opinions. See Page 2 for charts.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 43-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 31 October 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Bonds mit starken Signalen

Die Bondmärkte stehen derzeit im Mittelpunkt des Anlegerinteresses. Zumindest messen wir dort die stärksten Stimmungsausschläge. Das Sentiment ist auf den tiefsten Stand seit dem Bond-Crash im Frühjahr 2015 gefallen. Steht damit eine Wende nach oben unmittelbar bevor? Oder ist diese Entwicklung nur der Vorbote für noch stärkere Kursverluste? Bei USD-JPY schließen wir unsere Position (siehe Ergebniskommentierung von Sonntag).

Geänderte Einschätzungen: USD-JPY

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sentix ASR Essentials 43-2016

Written by Patrick Hussy | 30 October 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Bund pessimism reaches high end of historic range

The latest sentix survey points to increasingly entrenched pessimism on the nearterm outlook for US and Eurozone Bonds. In the case of Bund futures, sentiment readings have reached levels not seen in five years, and are now firmly set at the low end of their historic range. At the same time, monthly questions on investor positioning revealed that survey participants’ levels of over-investment in bonds have dropped well below long-term average levels. In conclusion, near-term pessimism on bunds is running at relatively stretched levels, though at the same time investors’ medium-term strategic bias on bunds has become a little less negative (see Charts 2-3, p2).

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sentix Investmentmeinung 42-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 24 October 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Öl mit neuem Signal

Die Ölpreise konnten sich in den letzten Wochen – entgegen der üblichen saisonalen Tendenz – weiter erho-len. Ausgangspunkt war ein schwaches Sentiment und eine moderate Belebung im Strategischen Bias. Doch nun beginnen sich, eine Reihe von Divergenzen einzustellen. Diese müssen zwar den Ölpreis nicht sofort nach Süden bringen, doch die Gefahrenmomente nehmen zu!

Geänderte Einschätzungen: EUR-USD, Rohöl

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sentix ASR Essentials 42-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 23 October 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

EM optimism chimes with constructive views on Commodities

The latest sentix survey points to an increasingly negative strategic bias on Eurozone bonds among those investors surveyed, set against a notably positive medium-term bias on equities, whether developed or emerging market. On the latter front, continued optimism on emerging market equities as an asset class chimes with a revival in sentiment towards commodities, underlining once again that sentiment on both asset classes remains closely linked. In the case of commodities, sentiment is not being undermined by investors’ optimism on the near-term outlook for the US dollar versus Yen and the euro (Charts 2-4, p2).

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