sentix ASR Essentials 41-2015

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Sentiment upswing on Utilities and Energy

The latest sentix survey suggests that investors have become markedly less downbeat on several sectors. In the case of Utilities, readings have rebounded from historic lows, to their highest level of 2015, albeit the survey suggests pessimism remains notable. At the same time, sentiment has also improved on Basic Resources and Energy versus the market, consistent with the notable improvement seen in sentiment towards Crude Oil (see Charts 2-4). A near-term revival in equity sentiment has been accompanied by a less downbeat view on some of the least loved European sectors.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 40-2015

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Schizophrenie oder Gleichgültigkeit

Auch in dieser Woche müssen wir uns die Frage stellen, ob die Anlageprofis Gefangene ihrer Grundüber-zeugung sind (Stichwort „alternativlose Aktien“). Denn diese Investorengruppe ist maßgeblich dafür ver-antwortlich, dass der Strategische Bias für deutsche / europäische Aktien anhaltend hoch ausfällt. Einerseits haben die Aktienindizes erfolgreich ihre Jahrestiefs verteidigt, die Kassa-Indizes in Europa markie-ren aber ein neues Wochenschlusskurs-Tief, was am Sentiment förmlich abprallt. Im Datenkranz ist ganz und gar nichts von Angst messbar. Auch die typischerweise auftretenden Panik-Berichte in den Gazetten bleiben aus...

Geänderte Einschätzung: keine

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sentix ASR Essentials 40-2015

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Macro uncertainty boosting bond sentiment

The latest sentix Economic Indices, released today, revealed a further decline in both eurozone (EZ) economic expectations and current situation readings, while the EZ overall headline reading fell from 13.6 to 11.7 (its lowest level since January). This more downbeat assessment of the eurozone macro outlook is also colouring investors’ views of bonds. Monthly survey readings based on views on the macro outlook as a bond ‘theme’ indicate that economics is seen as having become more
‘bond bullish’ on a six month view (Chart 3, page 2). This is consistent with the gradual improvement in sentiment towards bunds that has been seen in recent months. The sentix survey continues to indicate that macro matters for bonds.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 39-2015

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Die Fed ist in einer „lose-lose-Situation“

Der Strategische Bias für Aktien fällt weiter. Auffällig ist, dass dieser Prozess von den Privatanlegern ange-führt wird. Die Investmentprofis sehen das anders. Für sie ist die Aktienanlage alternativlos – komme da, was wolle! Sind Kursverluste wirklich alternativlos? Dies würde ein Endanleger anders sehen. Das Fatale ist, dass das Argument der Alternativlosigkeit sogar immer stärker wird, je mehr die Kurse fallen...

Geänderte Einschätzungen: keine

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sentix ASR Essentials 39-2015

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Equities unloved; but Going for Gold

While the latest sentix survey suggests investors have become a little less pessimistic on the near-term outlook for equity markets, survey readings based on investors’ views on equities from a medium-term strategic perspective continue to weaken. At the same time, monthly questions on positioning revealed that levels of over-investment in equities have fallen below longer-term average levels. A high degree of caution remains the dominant survey theme on global equities. In contrast, investors are warming to Gold, with near-term sentiment and mediumterm strategic bias readings pulling further away from their mid-summer lows. Caution on equities may be bolstering investor sentiment towards Gold (Charts 3-4).

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