sentix ASR Essentials 33-2015

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Investors still on the Defensive

The latest sentix survey suggests that investors remain on a defensive footing in terms of their sector preferences. While pessimism on Basic Resources versus the market has receded a little in the past month, Energy remains deeply unloved. At the same time, survey participants continue to become less optimistic on cyclical sectors such as Autos, Chemicals and Industrial Goods & Services (Chart 2, page 2). This is in sharp contrast to improving sentiment towards defensive sectors such as Healthcare and Food & Beverage. Indeed, the past month has even seen investors become a little less pessimistic on Utilities (Chart 3). Investors’ equity sector preferences versus the market continue to be tilted away from cyclical sectors towards defensives.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 32-2015

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Erholung in China gewinnt an Kontur

Große Verunsicherung, um nicht zu sagen Panik, befiel in den letzten Wochen so manchen Anleger, wenn er an chinesische Aktien dachte. Ein Einbruch um mehr als 30% binnen vier Wochen war zu viel, um noch an „normale“ Marktverhältnisse zu glauben. Und selbst die chinesische Administration wurde von der Abwärtsdynamik überrascht und wusste sich nur mit außergewöhnlichen Markteingriffen, wie einem Verkaufsverbot für bestimmte Aktienwerte, zu helfen. Doch diese Phase scheint abgeschlossen. China-Aktien werden von bearishem Sentiment und neuem Grundvertrauen gestützt.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: Aktien China, Bund Future

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sentix ASR Essentials 32-2015

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Heightened uncertainty on Equities in near-term

The latest Sentix survey throws up a couple of interesting angles on Eurozone equities and bonds. In the case of equities, elevated Neutrality readings point to a high degree of underlying uncertainty on the near-term outlook for equity indices such as the EuroSTOXX, even though sentiment readings are modestly positive (see Charts 5-7, page 3). This suggests there is potential for increased volatility in the coming weeks. In the case of bonds, investors are less upbeat than they were earlier in the year, from both a near-term and medium-term strategic perspective. However, sentiment has begun to revive in recent weeks. Monthly survey questions focussed on investors views on the economic outlook suggest this recent revival has reflected a growing belief that the macro backdrop has become less bond-bearish on a six month view (see Chart 3, page 2). Macro continues to matter for bonds.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 31-2015

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Contrarian-Signale an den Rohstoffmärkten

Die Rohstoffmärkte stehen gewaltig unter Druck. Während Gold und Silber bereits ihre bisherigen Jahrestiefs unterschritten haben, notiert das Rohöl derzeit genau wieder auf den Tiefständen von Januar dieses Jahres. Parallel dazu hat sich die Stimmung massiv eingetrübt und inzwischen pessimistische Extremwerte erreicht. Das alleine reicht als Contrarian-Signal jedoch nur dann aus, wenn sich gleichzeitig eine Wertwahrnehmung einstellt. Mit Blick auf die sentix-Headline-Indizes für den Strategischen Bias von Gold und Öl kommt da noch keine Hoffnung auf. Interessant wird ein Blick in die Details.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: Aktien China, Gold, Öl

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sentix ASR Essentials 31-2015

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Broken China sentiment

The latest sentix survey underlines the degree to which investors have lost faith in the Chinese equity market after recent sharp index reversals. Sentiment readings remain in a downward spiral and are now at historic lows. At the same time, survey participants are becoming ever-more downbeat on the market in terms of their medium-term strategic bias (see Charts 2 & 3, page 2). This latter development may be constraint for any rally in the market from its deep pessimism condition. We noted last week that widespread pessimism on Emerging Equity Markets as an asset class chimes with negative sentiment on Commodities. However, the latest survey provides a modest beacon amidst the prevailing Commodity gloom, with near-term pessimism on Gold having become a little less extreme in the past week (Chart 4).

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