sentix ASR Essentials 46-2015

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Equity sentiment setback yet to undermine medium-term view

The latest sentix survey suggests that while investors have become more cautious on the near-term outlook for equities, their faith in a brighter medium-term outlook has not been shaken. While near-term sentiment readings on the likes of the DAX and EuroSTOXX continue to pull back from recent highs, readings based on investors’ medium-term strategic bias are actually improving. Monthly questions on sector preferences paint a similar picture. Investors have become more cautious on resource plays and more optimistic on defensives such as Food & Beverage and Healthcare (see Charts 2-3, page 2). But the extent of the move over the past month is reasonably modest. Energy readings remain above recent lows and Healthcare well down on 2015 highs. The recent pull-back in markets has not, as yet, materially undermined investors’ views on the medium-term.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 45-2015

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Für die Rentenmärkte wird es eng

„Der Aufschwung kehrt zurück“ lautet die Überschrift über unsere heutige Presseaussendung zum sentix Konjunkturindex, die Sie unter http://konjunktur.sentix.de nachlesen können. Doch mit dem Dreh der Konjunkturerwartungen dürfte auch eine veränderte Einschätzung der Rentenmärkte nötig werden. Denn nicht nur die Konjunkturerwartungen der Anleger haben sich verändert, sondern auch ihre Inflationserwartungen.

Geänderte Einschätzung: Aktien USA, Japan und China, Bund-Future, US-Bonds, EUR-USD, USD-JPY

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sentix ASR Essentials 45-2015

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US Dollar optimism extreme versus Euro

The latest sentix Economic Indices, released today, revealed a further increase in the eurozone Economic Index (gaining 3.4 points to +15.1). This more upbeat assessment of the eurozone macro outlook is also colouring investors’ views of bonds. Monthly survey readings based on investors’ views on the macro outlook as a bond ‘theme’ indicate that economics is seen as having become less ‘bond bullish’ on a six month view (Chart 3, page 2). However, on other side of the Atlantic, the slide in sentiment towards US Bonds has been even more marked, with survey readings heading to the lower end of their 2012-15 range. At the same time, US rate rise expectations are bolstering dollar sentiment, with readings on EUR/USD having fallen to historic lows in the latest survey. US bond and currency  sentiment has seen some especially sizeable moves recently (Charts 3 and 4).

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sentix Investmentmeinung 44-2015

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Rohstoffmärkte in der Positionierungsfalle

In den letzten Wochen bekundeten die Anleger eine steigende Zuversicht gegenüber den Rohstoffmärkten. Sowohl der Strategische Bias zu Öl und Gold, als auch das sentix Assetklassen-Sentiment stiegen deutlich. In der Folge war auch eine Portfolioanpassung zu beobachten. Gemessen an der Positionierung der „large speculators“ im COT-Report ist ein signifikanter Anstieg der Investitionsgrade feststellbar. Diese Entwicklung dürfte sich kurzfristig als Bürde erweisen.

Geänderte Einschätzung: Gold

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sentix ASR Essentials 44-2015

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Optimism on Equities tempered ... but remains elevated

The latest sentix survey indicates that investor sentiment on equity markets has modestly retreated from recent highs, though optimism on indices in Europe and the wider world remains at relatively elevated levels. This chimes with the recent revival in survey readings focussed on investors’ medium-term strategic bias towards equity markets (see Chart 6, page 3), as well as the investor positioning questions from last week’s survey that revealed over-investment in equities had swung back above longer-term average levels. These latter developments offer some encouragement that the rally in markets is supported by an improved underlying assessment of the medium-term outlook for equities (Charts 3-4).

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