sentix ASR Essentials 19-2015

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Sentiment shaken; but sector opinions not stirred

The latest sentix survey suggests sentiment towards Equity markets has firmed a little after recent setbacks – albeit readings for the DAX and EuroSTOXX are only modestly positive – while respondents’ views on markets from a medium-term strategic perspective remain around recent highs. Monthly survey questions on investors’ views on European sectors versus the market also suggest little in the way of a dash for safety. In terms of the defensive sectors, while Healthcare readings have revived, Food & Beverage sentiment has edged lower. In the case of the cyclicals, optimism on Autos has modestly weakened from its elevated levels, but Chemicals and Construction sentiment has improved. The revival in Energy sentiment also remains on track (Chart 3, page 2). It appears that the testing start to May has not materially impacted investors’ Equity sector preferences.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 18-2015

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"Hoffen" bei Aktien, "beten" bei Bonds

Die Vorwoche hat so manchen Anleger in Aktien erschreckt. Das sentix-Sentiment ist nach den deutlichen Kursverlusten weiter eingebrochen und notiert nun auf dem niedrigsten Stand des Jahres! Gleichzeitig zeigen sich die Anleger auf mittlere Sicht aber keineswegs geschockt, im Gegenteil: Vor allem die Profis nehmen ihren Strategischen Bias sogar weiter nach oben. All dies vollzieht sich vor dem Hintergrund einer heftigen Bondmarktkorrektur, die sentix-Leser kaum überraschen wird – und die wohl noch nicht beendet ist! An den Währungsmärkten dagegen steht durchaus eine Zäsur an, der US-Dollar könnte mit erneuter Stärke (!) glänzen.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: EUR-USD

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sentix ASR Essentials 18-2015

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Time differential positive for German equities

The latest survey highlights a notable divergence of opinion on German equities. On one hand, investor pessimism on the near-term outlook for the DAX has sharply increased. On the other, participants’ views on the medium-term strategic value of German equities are running at relatively elevated levels. The net result has been a marked decline in the sentix Time Differential Index – which measures the difference between near and medium-term readings – to levels last seen in August 2014 and September 2013 (see Chart 2, page 2). This is notable given the sentix team views weak short-term sentiment set against a still healthy medium-term perception of value in an asset among market participants as a positive development.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 17-2015

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Sentiment kontra Markttechnik

In der letzten Wochen haben wir in einem Update unseres Jahresausblicks (weitere Informationen finden Sie hier: http://www.sentix.de/index.php/sentix-Jahresausblick/jahresausblick-update-april-2015.html ) unsere bullishe Aktiensichtweise nochmals untermauert. Kurzfristig dagegen gibt es einen interessanten Widerstreit zwischen unseren sentix-Sentimentdaten auf der einen und der markttechnischen Verfassung auf der anderen Seite. Diesen gilt es aufzulösen, um das von uns im Update skizzierte Kurspotential freizusetzen.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: China Aktien

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sentix ASR Essentials 17-2015

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Positioning provides reassurance on Equities

The latest sentix survey suggests that investors have become uncertain on the nearterm outlook for European equity markets, with sentiment dropping back to relatively neutral levels. However, they remain relatively upbeat from a mediumterm, strategic perspective (Charts 5/6, page 3). This chimes with survey questions looking at investors’ positioning, which indicate that the level of over-investment in equities modestly increased in the past month versus its long-term average, albeit it remains down from recent highs (Chart 3, page 2). Near-term uncertainties have yet to undermine optimism on the medium-term. In comparison, investors appear much less convinced on the prospects for Bunds over the medium-term, with survey readings falling back towards 12 month lows (Chart 10, page 4).

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