sentix ASR Essentials 05-2015

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A change of tack on Eurozone versus US Equities?

The latest sentix survey points to an interesting divergence of opinion on Eurozone and US Equity markets. In the case of the DAX Index, investors have become a little less optimistic on the near-term outlook, but remain highly positive from a mediumterm strategic bias perspective. They are also continuing to warm to the mediumterm prospects for the Euro versus the US Dollar. However, in the case of the US market, the past couple of weeks have seen medium-term survey readings on the S&P 500 modestly reverse (see Charts 2 and 3, page 2). It appears that investors are beginning to view Eurozone equities in a more favourable light than their largecap US peers.

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sentix ASR Essentials 04-2015

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Near-term optimism on DAX and ESTOXX hits the heights

Last week’s ECB announcement appears to have bolstered already high optimism towards European equity indices such as the DAX and EuroSTOXX. The latest sentix survey indicates that near-term sentiment towards both indices is now not far from historic highs (see Chart 2, page 2), while readings based on participants’ mediumterm strategic bias are also heading ever-higher. Indeed, monthly questions covering investors’ positioning also indicate there has been a sharp increase in overinvestment in equities versus the longer-term average level. In short, optimism on eurozone equities has reached the high-end of the historic range, with Sentix Neutrality indicators suggesting there is also little uncertainty among survey respondents on the near and medium-term outlook.

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sentix ASR Essentials 03-2015

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Commodities and Emerging Markets Sentiment still closely linked

The latest sentix survey indicates that while investors remain upbeat on the Chinese equity market, they remain cautious on the medium-term outlook for Emerging Equity Markets as an asset class. This chimes with their pessimism on Commodities, though survey respondents are less downbeat than they were in Q4 last year. Indeed, this is also evident in weekly survey readings on Crude and Gold, which continue to indicate a marked improvement in participants' medium-term strategic bias for both markets. A notable development, given sentiment towards Commodities and Emerging Markets remains closely linked (see Chart 3, page 2).

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sentix ASR Essentials 02-2015

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Energy remains deeply unloved

The latest sentix survey underlines that investors’ views on sectors have begun to shift in recent months. On one hand, optimism on Healthcare has become less extreme, while the past month saw a reversal in survey readings on Retail, Food & Beverage and Media versus the market. On the other, survey participants have become less cautious on the six month outlook for Cyclical sectors such as Industrial Goods & Services, Autos and Chemicals. Indeed, pessimism on Basic Resources has also become less marked in the past month. However, as yet there are no signs of a change of heart towards Energy. While investors have become increasingly optimistic on the medium-term outlook for Crude Oil, pessimism remains the dominant survey theme on the Energy sector relative (see Charts 2 to 4, page 2).

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sentix ASR Essentials 01-2015

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Caution evident on medium-term outlook for Eurozone Bonds

The latest sentix survey suggests that investors are entering the New Year with some familiar convictions on the medium-term outlook for markets. On the one hand, while investors are relatively neutral on the near-term outlook for Equities, they are becoming increasingly upbeat on indices from a medium-term, more strategic perspective (see Page 3). On the other, it appears that a growing belief in a brighter economic outlook for Germany and the Eurozone is tempering their enthusiasm for Bonds. The first survey of 2015 included responses on the macro outlook. These revealed that participants viewed economics as continuing to become less bond-bullish on a six month view (see Chart 3, page 2). While bond yields remain on a downward path, it appears that improving macro views are tempering investors' enthusiasm for Eurozone bonds in the medium-term.

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