sentix ASR Essentials 36-2014

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High uncertainty on Equities even as sentiment revives

While sentix survey respondents remain highly pessimistic on the Euro, there are signs that optimism is returning in terms of the medium-term outlook for Eurozone bonds and equities (see Charts 6 & 9, pages 3 & 4). In the case of equities, the revival in medium-term sentiment readings on the likes of the DAX and EuroSTOXX indices has occurred despite heightened pessimism over the near-term outlook. It may be that investors have begun to see value in equities after their summer setbacks. However, the improved tone of sentiment has also been set against a reduced level of over-investment in equities, based on the monthly survey questions on investor positioning. Equity sentiment on the medium-term is improving, but uncertainties have not gone away, as indicated by positioning and elevated 'neutrality' levels (see Chart 7, page 3).

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sentix ASR Essentials 35-2014

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High-optimism on Healthcare constrasts with caution Cyclicals

The latest sentix survey suggests that investors' views on sectors remain caught in the grip of uncertainty about the macro outlook. Questions on participants' opinions about the medium-term outlook for European sectors relative to the market revealed that they remain deeply pessimistic on sectors such as Basic Resources, Autos and Industrials. On the other side of the sentiment divide, investors remain especially optimistic on the medium-term outlook for Healthcare (see Charts 2 & 3, page 2). Sector sentiment appears to remain set on a more Defensive sector tack relative to Cyclicals.

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sentix ASR Essentials 34-2014

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Mind the sentiment gap between Emerging Markets & Commodities

The latest sentix survey throws up an interesting divergence in opinion on the Emerging Markets (EMs) and Commodities. While the tide of optimism continues to rise in the case of markets such as China, sentiment has turned sharply negative on Commodities such as Crude and Gold (see Charts 2-4 on Page 2). This appears odd given sentiment towards both asset classes has historically had a reasonably close relationship. The extent of the current sentiment gap between EMs and Commodities suggests the relationship may be beginning to break down.

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sentix ASR Essentials 33-2014

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ECB moves further undermine Euro sentiment

The latest Sentix survey provides a timely view of investor sentiment following last week's ECB policy moves. Initially, at least, they have been taken well by equity markets, with both near and medium-term sentiment readings for the EuroSTOXX also continuing to edge higher (see Page 3). In the case of Eurozone bonds, investors appear more equivocal on the medium-term outlook, though they view economic developments as becoming more bond-supportive (Chart 2, page 2). On the other side of the sentiment divide, however, survey participants have become even more downbeat on the outlook for the single currency. Pessimism on the nearterm prospects for Euro versus USD has returned to historic lows, while pessimism on the medium-term remains in the ascendancy (Charts 3 and 4, page 2).

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sentix ASR Essentials 32-2014

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Persistent pessimism on the Euro versus USD

European assets have been at the centre of some notable summer sentiment setbacks. The latest sentix survey indicates that investor pessimism on the nearterm outlook for Eurozone equities and the single currency has become less notable, with readings pulling back from the extremes reached in the past month (see Chart 2). However, while the latest survey suggests that medium-term sentiment towards European equities may be beginning to revive, albeit modestly, the path of Euro/USD sentiment remains firmly downwards (Chart 4, page 2). Investors remain deeply pessimistic on the outlook for the Euro from a strategic perspective.

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