sentix Economic News

Read the latest information and indications about the "first mover" among the economic indicators!

Background information on the sentix economic indicators

Euro-zone expectations drop despite Draghi

For the euro zone the sentix Economic Index (composite index) drops markedly in June. This is its second decrease in a row. Investors judge the current situation much worse than in the previous month, and their 6-monthexpectations also decline. The clear setback of the euro-zone index surprises as, in June, investors assess the economic conditions for the remaining world regions as better than before. It is mainly the emerging markets for which their sentiment brightens. The euro-zone indicators' decrease all the more comes as a surprise as the European Central Bank has just announced a whole package of new measures to push economic growth and inflation. But investors so far do not see this aspect of the ECB's policy while they do expect strong effects on the bond market, as complementary sentix data show. 

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Expectations fall across the board

Last month we pointed to the fact that the German economy had lost steam and had probably seen its best times in the current upswing already. Now, it looks as if the economy of the euro zone will suffer the same fate: While assessments of the current situation continue their way up, investors' 6-month expectations are down markedly in May. They fall for the third time in a row. This usually hints at a trend reversal. For Germany, the observations are quite similar: Here, too, the composite index retreats because expectations fall. At the same time the current situation is seen in a better shape than last month. The difference to the euro zone is that for Germany the composite index worsens since February already. For the other countries and regions, the composite indices are also weaker than in April. The developments are especially pronounced for Japan and Eastern Europe.

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German economy loses steam

The sentix economic index (composite index) for Germany falls in April for the third time in a row. While 6-month-expectations have been dragging down the indicator over the past months, it is now also the assessment of the current situation which is not lending support to the composite index anymore. The German economy thus loses steam. The big question now is how the euro-zone economy will react to this. Still, it is looking robust: The composite index for the euro area increases, once more, slightly. But expectations are down a little for the sec-ond consecutive month. For the rest of the world sentiment is improving slightly in April. Investors are again more upbeat for the emerg-ing-markets regions after last month's Crimean crisis shock. Also do they see improvements for the US. But sor-rows are growing for Japan: Here, the composite index falls markedly for the third time in a row. 6-month-expectations for Japan's economy have now reached a level last seen in November 2012. That was exactly the time when the so-called "Abenomics" started to take effects on investors' confidence. Their positive impact has obviously faded now.

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Robust, but heterogeneous

The sentix economic index (composite index) for the euro zone rises again in March and climbs from 13.3 to 13.9 points. This development is driven by investors' assessments of the current situation, while 6-month expecta-tions fall for the first time since September. For Germany, expectations decline for the third month in a row. Nevertheless, the composite index still signals that the German economy is in the middle of boom.

In the rest of the world things look rather mixed: Against the background of the Crimean crisis the sentix eco-nomic index for Eastern Europe drops strongly. But it rises for the two other emerging-markets regions, Asia ex Japan and Latin America. For the US, investors' opinions remain almost unchanged, while for Japan sentiment worsens further. The composite index for the global aggregate stays at a constant level, but the relatively high heterogeneity between countries and regions points to an increased uncertainty among investors and blurs the overall picture. 

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Euro zone counters global drop in sentiment

A little surprisingly, the sentix economic index (composite index) for the euro area continues its upward trend in February, rising by 1.4 to 13.3 points. It is mainly the current situation which is assessed in a better way than in the previous month by the almost 1,000 individual and institutional investors in the sentix survey. The correspondent index now reaches positive territory for the first time since August 2011. The increase of the composite index for the euro zone is all the more remarkable as investors perceive a clear drop in economic activity on a global level. Especially for the emerging markets they become more skeptical. But also for Japan sentiment is muted. 

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