sentix Economic News

Read the latest information and indications about the "first mover" among the economic indicators!

Background information on the sentix economic indicators

Die Konjunkturlokomotive nimmt Fahrt auf

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Der Gesamtindex für Euroland steigt im August dynamisch um 7,70 Punkte auf nunmehr -4,9 Punkte. Getrieben von einer verbesserten Lagebeurteilung, welche um 8,25 Punkte zulegen kann, wie auch einer positiveren 6-Monats-Erwartungen, die mit einem Plus von 7,00 Punkten aufwartet, legen alle Teilbereiche zu. Das Niveau spiegelt den zweithöchsten Stand in 2013 wider (Februar 2013 bei -3,9 Punkte). In das Konzert der guten Nachrichten reihen sich auch die Länder Deutschland, Japan und die USA ein, welche sich über die letzten Monate bereits positiv präsentiert hatten. Erfreulich ist, dass nun alle Weltregionen von einem Anstieg profitieren können. Insbesondere die Emerging Markets stoppen ihren Negativ-Trend der Vormonate. Der Index für das globale Aggregat steigt auf ein Fünf-Monatshoch.

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Euro zone is marking time

The composite index for the euro zone drops by one point to now -12.6 in July. The index is currently marking time. This is mainly caused by the assessment of the current situation which has made no headway for the past months. Investors' expectations remain above average, institutional investors are even becoming more optimistic. For Germany, the US and Japan, the composite indices rise significantly. Here, investors are extremely positively predisposed towards the economy. However, in the emerging markets regions, composite indices fall strongly, with the assessments of the current situation as a special burden. The index for the global aggregate therefore also declines in July.

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Euro Area passes through dent

The composite index for Euroland rises in June by 4 points and stands now at -11.6. The spring dent seems to have passed. The current turn is taking place earlier than in the past years, where similar patterns could be observed. This is pointing to a more robust economy. Should the current trend continue in the coming months, Euroland will finally move back into growth territory in the course of next quarter. Outside the Eurozone, the composite indices for the USA and for Japan reach their highest readings since Mai 2006 and August 2007, respectively. The indices for the Emerging Markets regions weaken once again. For  the global aggregate. this leads to a stabilisation.

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Trend reversal averted!

The composite index for the euro zone rises for the first time after two dampeners in a row. It improves from -17.3 to -15.6 points. With this, a trend reversal to the negative, which would have formally been  indicated by the third drop in a row, was averted. While the economic assessments of investors for the euro zone are stabilizing, the values for Germany worsen, albeit at a much higher level. Here, we see a convergence of investor assessments. The drop in the German composite index is solely based on the decrease in the assessment of the economic situation. The strongest improvement in the composite indices in May can be found for the US. For Japan, the development points upwards, too. The emerging markets, on the other hand, are once again considered as slightly weaker by investors. For the global aggregate, we note a small rise after two drops.

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Second setback in a row for the euro zone

The composite index for the euro zone drops in April from -10.6 points to -17.3 points and stands now slightly below last December's value. While the election in Italy led to the first setback for the index in March, the Cyprus issue is, amongst others, an additional strain in April: both sub-indices, the assessment of the economic situation and the 6-month expectations drop again. Expectations are now in the neutral zone. The composite index for Germany is no longer able to keep its distance from the negative development in the euro zone, expectations drop palpably – also taking into consideration weaker assessments for Germany's export regions, especially in Asia ex Japan. The global index drops the second month in a row. 

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