Significant spring tiredness

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The sentix overall economic index for the euro zone loses 4.4 points and falls back to a level of -13.1 points. Ex-pectations in particular slump to -19.0 points, the lowest level since December 2022. The German economy is also hard hit. The situation scores drop by 6.7 points, while expectations fall to -19.8 points. In the international con-text, the negative signs also dominate. For the US, the decline in expectations is striking. Here, the overall index reaches -17.5 points, the lowest level since November 2022. There is not much left of the laborious economic recovery of 2023.

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sentix Survey results (18-2023)

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Weak underlying confidence leads to nervousness

Nervousness about shares is on the rise. On the surface, the poor sentiment in equities gives hope. But the real tension is between the measurable serenity in the VIX Vola Index and the high neutrality of investors, which expresses their irritation about current market events. This tension should dissipate in the coming weeks. And as is almost always the case, this will happen through rising volatilities and a directional impulse.

Further results

  • Bonds: Euroland bonds with rising fundamental confidence
  • Gold: Still positive, but signs of fatigue
  • sentix economic index: 08.05.23 at 10.30 AM CEST

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sentix Survey results (17-2023)

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Vola ante portas

Sentiment for equities is neutral, as is positioning. Superficially, this does not result in any particular signal situation. Increasingly, investors are assuming a sideways trend, and short-term neutrality is rising massively. As a rule, this state does not last long. As soon as investors have more certainty, they jump on the next signal. Consequently, these high neutrality levels herald a vola surge.

Further results

  • Bonds: High confidence = excellent opportunities for U.S. bonds
  • Gold: Constructive breather
  • sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

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sentix Survey results (16-2023)

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Historical weakness in underlying equity confidence

In the past week, the remarkable behaviour in the Strategic Bias continues. While the prices of stocks radiate supposed stability, the basic confidence of professionals in particular in tech stocks plummets in a remarkable way. In 4 weeks, the index loses 26 percentage points. This has happened only twice before: in May 2001 and at the end of 2002. The statistical omens for equities are thus unfavourable.

Further results

  • Bonds: Confidence still on the rise
  • Precious metals: Safe haven
  • sentix styles - Investor preferences & behavior

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sentix Survey results (15-2023)

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Accumulated Vola Signals

Interest rate futures were again under pressure last week. But investors are not very impressed by this. The bias for the Bund is rising to the next cycle high - after all, the highest level since November 2008. Conversely, it is the stock markets whose bias is weak and weakening. Gold is not likely to continue positively until the summer, while the crypto markets could unleash their potential earlier.

Further results

  • Bonds: Willingness to buy continues to increase
  • Gold: Set for glossy period in the summer
  • sentix sector sentiment

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

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