New (global) hope

Written by Manfred Hübner | 05 October 2025
Posted in sentix Economic News

The October data from the sentix economic index paints a surprisingly positive picture of the international economy. Across all regions, the more than 1,100 professional and private investors surveyed reflect an improvement in the situation and expectations. This is particularly surprising given the shutdown that has begun in the United States. Mixed signals are also coming from the eurozone. Germany in particular continues to face strong headwinds, as reflected in the real data. Investors appear to have overreacted somewhat pessimistically in September. However, the Asian region is also making an increasingly positive impression.

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Gold-Trend überhitzt - sentix Risiko-Report - 09.25

Written by Manfred Hübner | 29 September 2025
Posted in Special research

Das schwache Sentiment ist unverändert eine Stütze für den DAX und den Euro Stoxx, so dass hier die Risiko-Scores leicht positiv sind. Größere Aktienmarkt-Risiken werden für Nasdaq, Nikkei und den China-Aktienmarkt angezeigt. Auffällig sind auch die Risikowerte von EUR-JPY sowie EUR-USD. Die Rallye am Goldmarkt hat bei dem Edelmetall die Risiko-Scores über alle Teilindizes nach oben getrieben. Wie ist dies historisch einzuordnen?

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sentix Survey results (39-2025)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 28 September 2025
Posted in sentix Weekly

Significant increase in crude oil bias opens up price potential

Sentiment on the stock markets remains subdued. There is still a negative divergence in sentiment. We are seeing a significant increase in the strategic bias toward crude oil. This indicates a willingness to buy, which is rather unusual at this time of year. In contrast, fundamental strategic confidence in precious metals and bonds is crumbling.

Further results

• Equities: Continued atypical sentiment development
• FX: Euro strength likely to run out of steam
• sentix investor positioning in equities, bonds and others assets

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sentix Survey results (38-2025)

Written by Patrick Hussy | 21 September 2025
Posted in sentix Weekly

Summer fears fade and confidence returns

The Fed is cutting interest rates for the first time in 2025 and professional investors are recognising this with a falling perception of the value of US bonds. While this is certainly a critical factor for bond investors, on the other hand it is causing investors to look upwards for equities. The bias for US equities in particular is increasing significantly, while at the same time summer fears are subsiding. This is accompanied by a series of overconfidence signals. The emerging markets are also creating a favourable mood.

Further results

• Equities: Overconfidence on the rise across the board
• Emerging markets: bonds and equities are in vogue
• sentix Styles - Investor preferences & behavior

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sentix Survey results (37-2025)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 14 September 2025
Posted in sentix Weekly

The negative sentiment divergence persists

With a slight delay, the AAII index now also reflects the decline in bullish sentiment on the US stock market. Such a clear disconnect between sentiment and price must be viewed as negative sentiment divergence. This type of divergence regularly occurs before a market peak. In contrast, sentiment towards gold is excellent, as is the underlying confidence in gold mining stocks.

Further results

• FX: Renewed overconfidence signal for EUR-JPY
• Gold: In high spirits
• sentix sector sentiment

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