No all-clear for the euro

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The latest survey on the sentix Euro break-up Risk Index, immediately performed after the surprising decisions of Euro leaders last Friday, gave a sobering result for the rescue politicians. The approximately 1,000 investors surveyed by sentix see the risk, that at least one country will leave within twelve months time frime, hardly less than a week ago!

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Euro oder Europa?

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Europa oder Euro? Ständig wird über Euro-Probleme und über notwendige europäische Antworten geredet. So macht beispielsweise die EU-Kommission Vorschläge für den Euro-Raum. Dabei werden ständig die Ebenen Nationalstaat, EU, Eurozone und Europa vermischt. So wird das nichts.

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Extended data offering (part 2)

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For all customers with website data access immediately free new time series are available. Bloomberg customers also receive the data shortly after the new codes are integrated into the Bloomberg system.

These new series relate to the data package SNPB (sentix Preferences & behavior) or Complete. We extended the positioning indices for equities and bonds series by Z-Score indices for Euro area and USA (bonds only). We name these indices Position Risk indices because the indicate the risk for markets out of a relative over or under investment in the asset class.

The new codes:

SNTWZEI0 - Bond position risk index Euro area (Z-Score) - Institutionals
SNTWZUI0 - Bond position risk index US (Z-Score) - Institutionals

SNTAZAH0 - Equity position risk index Euro area (Z-Score) - Headline index
SNTAZAI0 - Equity position risk index Euro area (Z-Score) - Institutional investors
SNTAZAP0 - Equity position risk index Euro area (Z-Score) - Individual investors

These indicators are also available in the graph tool for active participants in the survey.

A detailed list of codes can be found here.

56% expect the break of the Eurozone

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This is the result of the first survey on the new sentix Euro break-up risk index. 56% of the survey participants expect therefore at least the outlet of at least one country from the euro zone within the next 12 months! The survey involved nearly 1,000 investors from home and abroad. The probability of leaving the euro zone estimated here by private and institutional participants are very similar.

Greece "top candidate"

On the question which country is most likely to leave the euro zone, the participants - not surprisingly - answer very clear:88.9% expect Greece as the top exit candidate. Other countries are playing in the eyes of investors as an outlet candidates currently only a minor role. The two exceptions: Germany and Spain!

With 1.25%, the exit probability for Spain is even slightly higher than that of Portugal (1%). Considerably higher is the estimated probability for an exit of Germany (5.25%). Here have mainly the private investors a clear preference.

The sentix Euro break-up Risk Index is now collected weekly. The latest results are published at http://ebr.sentix.co.uk 

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Extended data offering

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For all customers with website data access immediately free new time series are available. Bloomberg customers also receive the data shortly after the new codes are integrated into the Bloomberg system.

These new series relate to the data package SNMS (sentix Market Sentiment) or Complete. For each market there are now time series are available, which reflect the bullish% and bearish%, each on short and medium term.

For the German stock market, for example, the following new codes result:

SNTMDXL1 - bullish% short term
SNTMDXS1 - bearish% short term

SNTMDXL6 - Bullish% medium term
SNTMDXS6 - bearish% in the medium term

These indicators are also available in the graph tool for active participants in the survey.

A detailed list of codes can be found here.

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