sentix ASR Essentials 11-2016

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Warming to Commodities and EM Equities; but cautious on Crude

Investors have become less downbeat on Chinese equities from a medium-term strategic perspective in recent weeks, albeit survey readings remain well down on twelve month highs. This chimes with a wider revival in sentiment towards Emerging Equity Markets as an asset class, as well as a more upbeat view among survey participants on the outlook for Commodities. A sustained improvement in commodity sentiment would be good news for EM Equities, given that sentiment on both asset classes remains closely linked. On this front, however, the survey also indicates investors have become less positive on Crude Oil from a medium-term strategic perspective, as WTI nears the $40bp resistance area (Charts 2-4, page 2).

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Brent rally runs out of fuel

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Investors’ medium term market confidence towards Brent crude oil drops surprisingly significant. That means mounting trouble for markets as investors’ willingness to sell is on the rise. The sentix indicator hints to falling crude oil notations.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 10-2016

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There are no translations available.

Öl noch nicht über den Berg

Mario Draghi hat gesprochen und den Märkten kurzfristig einen Bewegungsimpuls beschert. Doch entgegen der Wahrnehmung, die man über die Preisentwicklung haben könnte, hat er bei den Anlegern keinen nachhaltigen Eindruck hinterlassen. Unsere Erwartung eines weitgehenden „Non-Events“ hat sich damit bestätigt. Während es von den Aktien wenig Neues zu berichten gibt, senden die sentix-Daten interessante Signale zum Rohöl aus. Die laufende Preiserholung könnte schon bald auslaufen.

Geänderte Einschätzung: Rohöl Brent

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sentix ASR Essentials 10-2016

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Investors less on the sector defensive; but still wary on EZ equities

The latest sentix survey points to continued uncertainty on the outlook for eurozone (EZ) equities. This is despite signs that investors have become less defensive in terms of their sector preferences. On this front, the past month has seen optimism on cyclical sectors such as Basic Resources, Chemicals and Construction increase, while participants have become less downbeat on Financial Services and Banks. At the same time, survey readings on defensives such as Healthcare and Food & Beverage have weakened, while the recent revival in Utilities sentiment has begun to unwind. However, readings based on investors’ medium-term strategic bias on the DAX and EuroSTOXX are weakening. Caution is still the ‘watch word’ on EZ equities. On the other side of the sentiment divide, investors are as upbeat on Gold from a medium-term perspective as they have been since 2012. See p2 for charts.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 09-2016

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Wenig Vorfreude auf Draghi = wenig Risiko?

Wer erinnert sich nicht an die Tage vor der EZB-Sitzung Anfang Dezember 2015. Mario Draghi hatte im Vorfeld eine aggressive Kommunikationspolitik verfolgt und die Erwartungen der Marktteilnehmer kräftig geschürt. Die Vorfreude der Anleger auf diese Sitzung war so groß, dass wir bei sentix ein rekordhohes Sentiment messen konnten – und massiv vor Enttäuschungen warnen mussten. In dieser Woche steht wieder eine EZB-Sitzung an. Die EZB hat zwar im Vorfeld weit weniger in Aussicht gestellt, dennoch sind die Markterwartungen an weitere Zinsmaßnahmen nicht gerade klein. Droht erneut eine herbe Enttäuschung?

Geänderte Einschätzung: Bund Future

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