Ergebnisse der sentix-Umfrage zur Italien-Wahl

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Italien hat eine echte Schmierenkomödie abgeliefert, wobei Berlusconi fürs Schmieren und der zweite Wahsieger, Beppo Grillo, für die Komödie zuständig scheint. Doch was bedeuten die Ereignisse südlich der Alpen für die Finanzmärkte? Antworten auf diese Frage bringt eine sentix-Blitzumfrage, die von sentix durchgeführt wurde. Die Umfrage fand gestern, am 26. Februar 2013, von 15 bis 22 Uhr unter 837 Anlegern des deutschsprachigen Raumes statt. Laut dieser Umfrage rechnen 73,2% der befragten Anleger damit, dass der Urnengang für nur kurzfristige Irritationen an den Finanzmärkten sorgen wird. Doch immerhin 24,3% der Umfrageteilnehmer gehen davon aus, dass die Wahl ein nachhaltig negatives Ereignis darstellt. Dennoch dürfte sich Italien mit diesem Wahlergebnis selbst erheblich geschadet haben.

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Cyprus and Italy stop EBI downtrend

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The sentix Euro Breakup Index (EBI) for February increases from 17.15% to 19.25%. Consequently, the downtrend of the index is stopped, at least for the moment. At the same time, the current EBI value is still the second lowest since the indicator was launched in June 2012.

A reading of 19,25% means that about one in five investors expects at least one country to leave the euro zone within the next twelve months. The EBI had reached a high in July 2012 with 73%. The current survey was conducted from February 21st to February 23rd, 2013. 970 investors took part in the internet poll.

That the EBI has not fallen further (as in the six previous months) is mainly due to the investors' assessments of Cyprus and Italy. The EBI for Cyprus rises against the background of unresolved banking problems from 7.5% to 10.9%. For Italy the EBI climbs – just before the national elections – from 0.6% to 3.0%. That is the second highest reading for Italy since the EBI's inception. Only in July 2012 the index stood higher (at 4.0%).

In addition, the indices for Greece and Spain rise slightly. Greece remains the country for which most investors expect a euro exit within the next twelve months. Its EBI now stands at 15.3% (after 13.9%).

The positive surprise of the month is Portugal. Its EBI decreases for the seventh time in a row (from 1.5% to 1.4%). As a result, Portugal drops out of the list of those five countries with the highest EBI readings. It is replaced by Italy.

Among the countries with the five highest EBI readings remain the two core countries Germany and Finland. For both euro members the February readings rise slightly to 2.0% and 1.5%, respectively.

The February results of the sentix Euro Breakup Index show that at the current juncture the tensions surrounding the euro are not easing anymore. Reasons are probably the banking problems in Cyprus and the elections in Italy. Cyprus seems to have the potential to turn into a second Greece, although its present EBI is still lower than Greece's EBI ever was.

This month one could already observe investors' nervousness concerning political instabilities in Italy and Spain when looking at financial markets: Spreads for bonds from the euro periphery (over German Bunds) have stopped their downtrend. The February-EBI for Italy now even points to much higher spreads for Italian bonds than can be currently observed. If one looks at the history of the EBI, its current reading is indicating spread levels of around 450 basis points (bp) for 10-year bonds. This is not compatible with the actual ones of around 290 bp. But one has to bear in mind that the higher spreads in the past resulted from a much more euro hostile environment in general. Consequently, a comparison makes only partly sense.

Italian spreads over Bunds and Italian EBIThe divergence between the actual and the theoretical spread, given a concrete EBI, may also result from the assessment of private investors. Private investors this month are much more pessimistic than their institutional peers regarding Italy (EBI for private investors: 4.5%, EBI for institutional investors: 1.6%). But it is institutional investors who have the greater weight for spread developments.

Considering this, the February-EBI has to be understood as a kind of warning: While the euro zone experiences quite positive dynamics at the moment (reflected in other sentix data like the sentix strategic bias for stocks or the sentix eco indices), the situation remains fragile.

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Alzheimer

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Ein Frankfurter, Alois Alzheimer,  entdeckte vor über 100 Jahren im Rahmen seiner Tätigkeit an der Nervenheilanstalt der Stadt das nach ihm benannte Leiden. Die Institution war damals im Stadtteil Westend angesiedelt. Die Patientin, an der der Arzt die Krankheit erstmals beobachtete, kam von der anderen, der südlichen Seite des Mains, aus Sachsenhausen. Die neuen Büros von sentix liegen ziemlich genau in der Mitte, unweit des nördlichen Mainufers. Und mit Vergesslichkeit, die uns hin und wieder auch an Alzheimer denken lässt, haben wir es beinahe täglich zu tun.

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Euro area close to growth

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The composite index for Euroland rises for the sixth time in a row to -3.9 points in February. Once again, the six month expectations of the 984 surveyed investors gain more ground than the assessment of the economic situation. They reach the highest reading since June 2007, the last month before the beginning of the financial crisis. Overall, we can note: with a composite index close to the zero mark, the euro zone economy is poised to grow again. It is almost without doubt that the composite index for the euro area will reach positive territory soon – the general dynamics are currently just too strong. 

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Euro breakup almost no issue anymore among investors

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The sentix Euro Breakup Index (EBI) for January falls from 25.0% to 17.2%. This is the EBI's sixth consecutive decrease and, once more, its lowest level since its inception in June 2012. Only one out of six investors now thinks that within the next twelve months at least one country will leave the euro area. The EBI had reached a high in July 2012 with 73%. The survey was conducted from January 24th to January 27th, 2013. 956 investors took part in the poll.

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