sentix ASR Essentials 18-2015

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Time differential positive for German equities

The latest survey highlights a notable divergence of opinion on German equities. On one hand, investor pessimism on the near-term outlook for the DAX has sharply increased. On the other, participants’ views on the medium-term strategic value of German equities are running at relatively elevated levels. The net result has been a marked decline in the sentix Time Differential Index – which measures the difference between near and medium-term readings – to levels last seen in August 2014 and September 2013 (see Chart 2, page 2). This is notable given the sentix team views weak short-term sentiment set against a still healthy medium-term perception of value in an asset among market participants as a positive development.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 17-2015

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Sentiment kontra Markttechnik

In der letzten Wochen haben wir in einem Update unseres Jahresausblicks (weitere Informationen finden Sie hier: http://www.sentix.de/index.php/sentix-Jahresausblick/jahresausblick-update-april-2015.html ) unsere bullishe Aktiensichtweise nochmals untermauert. Kurzfristig dagegen gibt es einen interessanten Widerstreit zwischen unseren sentix-Sentimentdaten auf der einen und der markttechnischen Verfassung auf der anderen Seite. Diesen gilt es aufzulösen, um das von uns im Update skizzierte Kurspotential freizusetzen.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: China Aktien

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sentix ASR Essentials 17-2015

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Positioning provides reassurance on Equities

The latest sentix survey suggests that investors have become uncertain on the nearterm outlook for European equity markets, with sentiment dropping back to relatively neutral levels. However, they remain relatively upbeat from a mediumterm, strategic perspective (Charts 5/6, page 3). This chimes with survey questions looking at investors’ positioning, which indicate that the level of over-investment in equities modestly increased in the past month versus its long-term average, albeit it remains down from recent highs (Chart 3, page 2). Near-term uncertainties have yet to undermine optimism on the medium-term. In comparison, investors appear much less convinced on the prospects for Bunds over the medium-term, with survey readings falling back towards 12 month lows (Chart 10, page 4).

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sentix Investmentmeinung 16-2015

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2015 mit Parallelen zu 2005 und 2007

Nach der Jubelstimmung, die wir noch in der Vorwoche zu DAX & Co. messen konnten, folgt nun der Kater. So lautet das Fazit unserer gestrigen Ergebnismail. Müssen wir nun die Hoffnungen auf ein Erreichen neuer DAX-Höchststände fürs Erste begraben? Betrachtet man den Abschwung im Sentiment isoliert, stünden die Aussichten tatsächlich schlecht. Denn ein so massiver Sentimentumschwung – wir sprechen an dieser Stelle von einem Sentimentimpuls – war in der Vergangenheit ein Vorbote für Ungemach am Markt. Wir haben uns die diesbezügliche Statistik genauer angesehen und kommen zu interessanten Ergebnissen.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: DAX, EuroSTOXX 50, S&P 500, Nikkei, USD-JPY

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sentix ASR Essentials 16-2015

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Sentiment shaken on Equities, but strategic views little changed

Last week’s late sell-off in equity markets appears to have hit sentiment hard, with survey readings based on investors’ views on the near-term outlook dropping from historic highs to modestly negative levels in the space of a week. However, the impact on investors’ views on the medium-term strategic outlook has been negligible. On this front, survey readings remain high-end on indices such as the EuroSTOXX (Page 3). Monthly survey questions looking at investors’ views on asset classes also indicate that respondents have become a little more upbeat on Emerging Equity Markets in the past month, in line with improved sentiment towards Commodities (Chart 3, page 2). It appears that last week has shaken nearterm sentiment on Equities, but not yet stirred concerns on the medium-term.

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