sentix ASR Essentials 13-2015

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Heightened investor uncertainty on the near-term outlook

The latest sentix survey suggests that while investors remain relatively positive on the outlook for equities from a medium-term strategic perspective, they have become markedly more uncertain about the near-term outlook. Across the indices covered by the survey, near-term neutrality indices have headed towards the highend of their two year range (Chart 7, page 3). This chimes with survey questions looking at investors’ positioning which indicate that the level of over-investment in equities has declined in the past month (Chart 3, page 2). However, heightened neutrality is also a feature on Bunds (Chart 10, page 4). Growing investor uncertainty on the near-term outlook encompasses both equities and bonds.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 12-2015

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Saison-Muster contra Time Differential Index

Kurzfristig liegen einige Anzeichen vor, dass der deutsche Aktienmarkt eine Konsolidierungsbewegung durchlaufen sollte. So notiert der sentix Overconfidence Index bei einem Stand von +9 auf gefährlichen Höhen, für den TecDAX erreichte der Index sogar seinen Maximalwert von +13. Auch das Saisonmuster legt eine Verschnaufpause nahe. Und dennoch wartet wohl keine größere Korrektur auf die Anleger.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: keine

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sentix ASR Essentials 12-2015

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Sentiment setback for Commodities and Emerging Markets

Monthly survey questions looking at investors’ views on asset classes suggest that sentiment towards both Emerging Equity Markets and Commodities has weakened over the past month, albeit readings remain well above their Q4 2014 lows. This development chimes with the less positive view on the medium-term, more strategic outlook for the Chinese equity market that has emerged in recent weeks, as well as renewed pessimism on Crude Oil and Gold (see Charts 2 and 3, page 2). The sentix survey continues to underline the degree to which sentiment towards Commodities and Emerging Equity Markets remains closely linked.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 11-2015

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DAX und EUR-USD – Gegenläufigkeit bleibt marktbestimmend

Die Rallye am deutschen Aktienmarkt hat viel mit der Schwäche des Euros gemein. Nur selten zuvor schaffte es der DAX, sich in seiner Grundtendenz gegen die Wall Street zu behaupten. In diesem Jahr gelang ihm bereits zweimal die Abkopplung von einer Korrekturtendenz in New York – doch nur mit Hilfe eines schwachen Euros. Inzwischen sind beide Märkte statistisch stark überkauft, so dass eine Gegenbewegung an beiden Märkten wahrscheinlicher wird.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: DAX, EuroSTOXX, EUR-USD, USD-JPY

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sentix ASR Essentials 11-2015

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Poles apart on Autos, Utilities and Energy

The latest sentix survey provides a unique insight into investors’ current views on European sectors. It suggests that opinions have become a little less polarised in terms of cyclical sectors versus defensives, with survey readings on Chemicals, Construction and Industrials Goods and Services (versus market) edging lower, while Healthcare and Food & Beverage sentiment improved. However, optimism on Autos (Chart 2, page 2) and pessimism on Utilities remains at historic extremes. At the same time, while survey respondents are becoming less downbeat on Basic Resources, they remain deeply pessimistic on Energy (Chart 3). The latest survey still highlights several sectors as being prey to highly polarised sentiment.

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