sentix Survey results (37-2025)

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Written by Manfred Hübner | 14 September 2025
Posted in sentix Weekly

The negative sentiment divergence persists

With a slight delay, the AAII index now also reflects the decline in bullish sentiment on the US stock market. Such a clear disconnect between sentiment and price must be viewed as negative sentiment divergence. This type of divergence regularly occurs before a market peak. In contrast, sentiment towards gold is excellent, as is the underlying confidence in gold mining stocks.

Further results

  • FX: Renewed overconfidence signal for EUR-JPY
  • Gold: In high spirits
  • sentix sector sentiment

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sentix Survey results (36-2025)

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Written by Manfred Hübner | 07 September 2025
Posted in sentix Weekly

Unusual stability thanks to many short-term stock bears

There continues to be a significant discrepancy between the attitudes of investors surveyed by the AAII in the US and sentix investors with regard to equities. The sentix data shows a much higher number of neutral investors. Only in 2006 were we able to measure similarly high differences. The number of short-term bears, on the other hand, is similarly high, and this fact is currently lending the market its unusual stability.

Further results

  • Bonds: Basic strategic confidence is being undermined
  • Silver: Euphoric mood
  • sentix Economic Index: Monday, Sep. 8, 2025, 10:30 a.m. CEST

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sentix Survey results (35-2025)

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Written by Manfred Hübner | 31 August 2025
Posted in sentix Weekly

Equity sentiment remains subdued

Investor sentiment toward equities remains negative. Over the course of the week, we have also measured a reduction in portfolio risks. Investors therefore appear to have a fair amount of respect for the traditionally difficult month of September. This could lend the stock market a stability that it rarely exhibits at this time of year. There are also interesting sentiment signals for USD-JPY and gold.

Further results

  • Equities: Chinese stocks show signs of risk
  • Gold: Strategic bias remains high, but positioning does not
  • USD-JPY: Interest rate differentials weigh on strategic confidence

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sentix Survey results (34-2025)

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Written by Manfred Hübner | 24 August 2025
Posted in sentix Weekly

The bull market in equities is not spreading to sentiment

The stock markets, led by the US markets, have so far defied their seasonal pattern in a remarkable way. There are no signs of a summer slump as yet. However, investors remain cautious. The price gains are not translating into investor sentiment. In our view, this is cautionary investor behavior. The outlook for gold and silver, on the other hand, is better.

Further results

  • Gold: Stable underlying confidence is positive
  • EUR-JPY: High overconfidence, as in 2007
  • sentix investor positioning in equities, bonds and others assets

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sentix Survey results (33-2025)

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Written by Manfred Hübner | 17 August 2025
Posted in sentix Weekly

All-time highs in equities have little impact on equities

Despite new all-time highs, sentiment among US equities is rising only slightly. The market is unable to “shake off” investors' concerns. While US data (AAII) tends to show polarization (neutrality declining), we are measuring high investor irritation (neutrality rising). The sentix data therefore points to rising volatility. In conjunction with weak market breadth and the still weak seasonal window, we therefore remain rather defensive on equities.

Further results

  • Gold: TD Index remains a source of support
  • EUR-JPY: High overconfidence slows the rise
  • sentix Styles - Investor preferences & behavior

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