sentix Survey results (36-2019)

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Gold bias continues to tip over

Over the past twelve months, investors' investment behaviour in gold has changed significantly. The lowest position since 2007 has become one of the highest gold ratios in investor portfolios. This position building was supported by a positive perception of value on the part of investors. However, this has already weakened significantly in recent weeks. This should lead investors to think about profit taking.

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sentix Survey results (35-2019)

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Positive market breadth for US equities

Market breadth is an important building block in the assessment of stock markets. An indicator for the composition of the market breadth is the "Advance Decline" line. It measures daily how many shares are rising or falling and the cumulative result. Currently, the "AD line" for the S&P 500 reaches a new all-time high and is thus positively divergent from the price trend, which has not yet reached this high. A sign of strength.

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Gold correction ante portas

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In the current weekly analysis, we have highlighted the sentix risk radar to gold. With a value of -2.1 standard deviations, gold has a high risk according to this indicator. The indicator evaluates the factors sentiment, positioning, overconfidence, deviation from the moving average and the RSI indicator.

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sentix Survey results (34-2019)

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Gold risks sharply increased

With the sentix risk radar, we systematically measure opportunities and risks that arise for investments from sentiment or technical analysis. Extreme values arise when the indications across all the sub-indicators considered show strong characteristics. For gold (in USD), the overall index reaches such a high value with -2.1 standard deviations. The average price expectation over 4-6 weeks is now -5%!

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Classical US Pre-election Year

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2019 is so far a relatively typical pre-election year in the US presidential cycle on the US stock exchange. If this remains the case, no major gains can be expected from US equities into November. However, the coming stabilisation phase of around 25 trading days also stands out in this analysis.

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