sentix Euro Break-up Index News

On this page we provide information about the latest development of the sentix Euro break-up Index. This indicator shows over time, how likely individual and institutional investors rate the probabilty of a breakup of the euro area (leaving at least one country) within 12 months time. Also it reflects which countries are particularly affected.

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EBI and economic expectations take separate ways

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In August, the sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) rises for the first time since December. But its increase by 0.6 points to 8.2% remains negligible. This holds all the more true if one considers how pronounced the recent fall of sentix economic expectations has been. Euro-zone government bonds thus remain an interesting asset class for investors. The sentix EBI data point to particularly good opportunities in Spanish titles.

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Only three countries left with noteworthy exit probabilities

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The sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) further recedes in July and now stands at 7.6% after 8.5% in the previous month. This, once more, is an all-time low. Only for Greece, Cyprus and – against the backdrop of the Espírito Santo crisis – once again for Portugal investors still see noteworthy euro-exit probabilities.

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EBI recedes despite fading economic optimism

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The sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) falls for a sixth straight month. In June, it decreases from 9.0% to 8.5%. Over the last two years investors have never been so optimistic regarding the euro's future. But at the same time investors' economic expectations have been weakening recently. And a slowdown in economic activity could well lead to renewed fears concerning a euro break-up. This possibility is obviously ruled out by investors at the current juncture.

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Politics reach their aim – EBI continues its fall

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In May, the sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) falls from 9.8% to 9.0%. This again marks a new low in the history of the now two-year old indicator.

This month two developments are outstanding: Firstly, the national EBI for Italy now stands at 1.5% and thus, for the first time since the beginning of the year, clearly below the 2% threshold. Investors' nervousness surrounding Italy's government change in February has now faded a little. Secondly, the German index climbs from 1.0% to 1.7%. The European elections and the discussion about the euro-skeptic German party AfD have made investors once more aware of the fact that there is still a non-negligible number of euro-critics in Germany. This development now makes the German EBI the third highest behind the ones for Greece (6.7% after 7.1%) and for Cyprus (3.7% after 4.1%).

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Euro Break-up Index falls below 10 percent ahead of European elections

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In April, the sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) falls from 10.9% to 9.8% and thus below the 10 percent threshold for the first time since its launch in June 2012. The reading shows that now less than one in ten investors expects at least one country to leave the euro zone within the next twelve months.

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