sentix Euro Break-up Index News

On this page we provide information about the latest development of the sentix Euro break-up Index. This indicator shows over time, how likely individual and institutional investors rate the probabilty of a breakup of the euro area (leaving at least one country) within 12 months time. Also it reflects which countries are particularly affected.

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Confidence rises -- sentix EBI at all-time low

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After having climbed two months in a row the sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) falls to an all-time low of 13,3% in January. It stood at 17% in the previous month. With its current reading, the sentix EBI shows that less than one in seven investors expects at least one country to leave the euro area within the next twelve months.

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France moves further away from the core

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Even at the turn of the year, the sentix Euro break-up index increases. The December EBI stands at 17 points. However, this is still not far away from the all time low recorded in October 2013.

In the individual assessment of the national EBI two developments stand out. Firstly, the EBI increases for Portugal to 2.7 %. Investors are reacting to the decision of the Constitutional Court to ban a part of the austerity measures adopted. The increase is indeed remarkable in absolute terms, however, this is not a new quality for investors assessment of Portugal. In particular, if one compares the EBI development with the development of the interest rate differentials of Portuguese government bonds to German bunds, Portuguese bonds are still considered to be rated "fair" .

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Italy spoils the party

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After three consecutive declines the sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) rises from its October all-time low of 14.25% to now 15.8% in November. This is still its second-lowest reading since the launch of the indicator in June 2012. The sentix EBI shows that currently about one in six investors expects at least one country to leave the euro zone within a year's time.

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EBI falls to all-time low despite French puzzle

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In October, the sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) falls by 4.5 percentage points to a new all-time low since its launch in June 2012. It now stands at 14.25%. This month’s decrease is the third in a row. Only in January the index had reached a comparably low level at 17.15%. The sentix EBI indicates that it is now about one in seven investors who expects at least one country to leave the euro zone within a year's time.

The decrease of the sentix EBI takes place against the background of prevailing government negotiations in Germany which now head for a grand coalition. Furthermore, negative headlines concerning the euro zone were relatively rare over the past weeks. Rather it was the United States and their budgetary impasse which seized the attention of investors recently.

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Sorrows surrounding the euro zone fade despite Italian woes

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The sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) falls again in September. It is now down to 18.75% from 20.45%. This is its second-lowest reading since its introduction in June 2012. Only in January the index stood lower at 17.15%. Nevertheless, the sentix EBI indicates that it is still about one in five investors who expects at least one country to leave the euro zone within a year's time.

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