sentix Euro Break-up Index News

On this page we provide information about the latest development of the sentix Euro break-up Index. This indicator shows over time, how likely individual and institutional investors rate the probabilty of a breakup of the euro area (leaving at least one country) within 12 months time. Also it reflects which countries are particularly affected.

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Balance between pessimists and optimists

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The sentix Euro-Break-up Index (EBI) for September falls again markedly. This time it decreases by ten percentage points. The EBI now stands at 51.9 %. That means that only about half of those 897 investors who took part in the latest sentix survey expect at least one country to leave the euro zone within the next twelve months. The survey was conducted from September 27th to September 29th.

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Moderation despite Finns

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The sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) for August falls by around eleven percentage points to 61.9 %. The survey was conducted among 841 private and institutional investors from August, 24th, to August, 26th. The EBI stands for the probability investors attribute to the event of at least one country leaving the euro zone within the next twelve months.

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sentix EBR Index shows quick Euro end for Greece

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The sentix Euro Break-up Index for July rises by 22 percentage points to 73 %. The corresponding survey was conducted by sentix from July 26 to July 28 among 811 institutional and individual investors. The index mirrors the investors' perceived probability of at least one country leaving the Euro within the next twelve month.

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No all-clear for the euro

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The latest survey on the sentix Euro break-up Risk Index, immediately performed after the surprising decisions of Euro leaders last Friday, gave a sobering result for the rescue politicians. The approximately 1,000 investors surveyed by sentix see the risk, that at least one country will leave within twelve months time frime, hardly less than a week ago!

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56% expect the break of the Eurozone

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This is the result of the first survey on the new sentix Euro break-up risk index. 56% of the survey participants expect therefore at least the outlet of at least one country from the euro zone within the next 12 months! The survey involved nearly 1,000 investors from home and abroad. The probability of leaving the euro zone estimated here by private and institutional participants are very similar.

Greece "top candidate"

On the question which country is most likely to leave the euro zone, the participants - not surprisingly - answer very clear:88.9% expect Greece as the top exit candidate. Other countries are playing in the eyes of investors as an outlet candidates currently only a minor role. The two exceptions: Germany and Spain!

With 1.25%, the exit probability for Spain is even slightly higher than that of Portugal (1%). Considerably higher is the estimated probability for an exit of Germany (5.25%). Here have mainly the private investors a clear preference.

The sentix Euro break-up Risk Index is now collected weekly. The latest results are published at http://ebr.sentix.co.uk 

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